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Visualizing Malaria from Space

PietroPublic health professionals are increasingly concerned about the impact climate variability and change can have on infectious diseases such as malaria, dengue fever and bacterial meningitis. However, in order to study the relationships between climate and ...

If You’re Not Going to San Francisco

Golden Gate BridgeKeep an eye on State of the Planet over the next week for updates on the fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union.

American Geophysical Union Dec. 3-7: Key Talks From the Earth Institute

Scientists from Columbia University’s Earth Institute will present important new studies at the Dec. 3-7 meeting of the American Geophysical Union, the world’s largest gathering of earth and space scientists. Below: a chronological guide. Most researchers are at our Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO).More info: http://fallmeeting.agu.org/2012/ Reporters may contact scientists directly at any time, or call [...]

Expanding Our Vision Brings the Big Picture Into Focus

Ice Bridge Blog - Mon, 11/12/2012 - 12:47

Mount Murphy rises through the ice sheet along the flank of West Antarctica, diverting the flow of ice around it (photo credit J. Yungel, NASA IceBridge Project)

1500 feet above the ground surface is where our suite of instruments normally operates, but for this flight we are taking them up higher, much higher, in fact over 20 times our normal range to 33,000 feet. Our flight plan is to repeat lines surveyed in a previous years by NASA’s Land, Vegetation Ice Sensor (LVIS) a scanning laser altimeter. LVIS has collected data as part of the IceBridge instrument suite in the past, but it was flown separately at high altitude on its own plane, in order to map large areas of both land and sea ice. This flight will refly some of LVIS’s work but using a subset of the instruments on our plane, narrow swath-scanning lidar, the digital mapping camera system, the gravimeter, and our depth radar.

At our higher elevation we will fly faster and can cover a lot of ground. The landscape of Antarctica can be hard to get ones head around – a glacier catchment is usually too big to fit into one field of view, so we see it bit by bit, and try to build up a physical picture in the same way we build up our understanding of the system – piece by piece. We have flown several missions into the Amundsen Sea region on the west Antarctic coast in the past, but this was the first time where we could really see the context of all of these different glaciers – flowing into the same embayment, forming ice shelves, calving ice bergs, and drifting northwards through the sea ice.

The flight offers views of some of the most noteworthy features in Antarctica. Pine Island Glacier, one of world’s fastest streaming glaciers, developed an 18 mile crack along its face in the fall of 2011 which spread further over the last few months. The crack will inevitably lead to breakage, dropping an iceberg which scientists have estimated will be close to 300 pound in size.

Crack along the front of the Pine Island Glacier as seen form the IceBridge forward facing camera.


The crack in the Pine Island Glacier as it is propagating further through the ice (Photo credit NASA IceBridge)


Bordering the glacier is one of two shield volcanoes we passed over during our flight. Pushing up through the Antarctic white mask, Mount Murphy diverts the ice streaming along the glacier. A steeply sloped massive 8 million year old peak, Mount Murphy pulls my thoughts back New York as it was named for an Antarctic bird expert from the American Museum of Natural History.

Mount Murphy, one of two shield volcanoes we overflew on this mission. (Photo K. Tinto)


From Mount Murphy we continue to the second shield volcano, Mount Takahe. Ash from 7900 years ago found in an ice core from the neighboring Siple Dome has been attributed to an eruption from this volcano. This massive potentially active volcano is about 780 cubic kms in size. The volcano was named by a science team participating in the International Geophysical Year (1957-8) after the nickname of the plane providing their air support …an unusual name for a plane as its origin is that of a plump indigenous Māori bird from New Zealand which happens to be flightless! Regardless the rather round Mount Takahe soars high above the glacier as we move overtop.

Mt. Takahe a slumbering volcano that is believed to have deposited evidence of an eruption in the ice almost 8000 years ago (Photo K. Tinto)


From there we fly over the tongue of Thwaites Glacier as it calves icebergs into the Amundsen Sea. To read more about Thwaites check out my first blog of the season: http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2012/10/18/launching-the-season-with-a-key-mission-icebridge-antarctica-2012/

The calving front of Thwaites Glacier. The neighboring glaciers of Pine Island and Thwaites are moving ice off West Antarctica into the surrounding ocean at a rapid rate (Photo K. Tinto)


For more on the IceBridge project visit:

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/icebridge/index.html

http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/icebridge/:

The Story at Ronne

Ice Bridge Blog - Thu, 11/08/2012 - 14:53

Travel to the Ronne Ice Shelf involved passing by the Ellesworth Mountains. The range contains Antarctica’s highest peak, Vinson Massif at 4897 meters of elevation.

Named after Edith Ronne, the first American woman to set foot on this southern continent, the Ronne Ice Shelf is tucked just to the East of the Antarctic Peninsula on the backside of the Transantarctic Mountains. With an area measured at 422,000 square kms, this is the second largest ice shelf in Antarctica. This vast icy expanse stretches into an indentation in the Antarctic coastline called the Weddell Sea, and gained some attention this past spring when scientists identified a mechanism that will force warming ocean water up against Ronne, which over time will cause it to thin and weaken (Hellmer, H. H. et al., 2012). Ice shelves are important barriers slowing the flux of ice moving off the land into the surrounding ocean. Any weakening in the tight connection of this ice to the land, either at the bottom where the shelf freezes to the ground below or where at the edges where it is tightly fused to the continent, can have major impacts on the speed and volume (flux) of ice moving off the land and into the oceans.

Annotated Antarctic map showing the area of study.


The current mission is being flown to measure the flux of ice currently coming into the Ronne Ice Shelf from the surrounding Antarctic landmass. To determine this we focus on the ‘grounding line’, the area where the ice changes from being frozen solid to the land below to floating as part of the ice shelf. To understand how much ice is moving over the grounding line, we have to understand how much ice is at the grounding line, and to do this we have to fly along the grounding line (or slightly inshore of it).

The majestic Ellsworth Mountains, formed about 190 million years ago, are the highest range in Antarctica, and steeper than the Tetons. Their original name, Sentinel Range, describes their posture, as they watch over the Weddell Sea and the Ronne Ice Shelf.


In many areas of Antarctica, even knowing where the grounding line is takes a lot of work. Much of that work is done using satellite data through a process called “interferometry”. This process compares the returning radar signal from different satellite passes to determine where the ice begins to move under the influence of the ocean tides. In this scale, ice that is responding to the rise and fall of the tides is floating ice, and from this we can mark the grounding line. While technique identifies the grounding line, it does not show how much ice is moving across it; to determine that we need to collect ice thickness measurements. For today’s flight we moved just inland of the grounding line for about half of the Ronne Ice Shelf collecting ice thickness and other supporting data that will begin to fill in this important information.

Reference: Hellmer, H. H. et al. Nature, 2012. DOI:10.1038/nature11064. 


For more on the IceBridge project visit:

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/icebridge/index.html

http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/icebridge/

LDEO email/web outage

IT Announcements - Wed, 11/07/2012 - 15:06

The Zen of Sanding

The Broadleaf Papers - Sun, 11/04/2012 - 11:56

By Ana Camila Gonzalez

“But can’t you see the rings already?” I ask, wondering why I’ve been asked to sand a sample- it sounds to me like one would damage a sample by subjecting it to the mechanical screech of a sander.

 

“Yes, but under the microscope they look foggy if you don’t sand them. Also, you’re looking at a black oak sample. You wouldn’t see any rings before sanding if you were looking at a Maple, for example.” Jackie responds. She shows me a maple core sample that she explains has been hand-sanded down to a 1200 grit. It’s smooth and shiny as can be; yet I can barely see what seem to be hairlines.

 

“Oh. That makes sense.” I secretly hope I won’t have look at another maple sample for a while.

 

I approach the machine. I look like a character from BioShock or a WWII soldier in the trenches, as I am wearing a respiration mask, goggles and ear muffs. Seemed a little excessive to me at first- once I turned the machine on and I saw the mushroom cloud of sawdust come off the banshee-screeching sander, however, I realized I’d be better off looking like a biohazard worker than having to bring an inhaler and hearing aid to work.

 

Anapocalypse: Ana gearing up for sanding. Image: N. Pederson

 

I place my first sample down on the sander, but it flies off and hits the wall…  I guess I can hold it tighter and push it down a little harder. I try again but this time my sample stops the belt from spinning. Definitely too hard. Eventually I get just the right amount of pressure, and I realize I can tell because my sample looks clearer every time I take it off the belt. I start humming to myself, singing something along the lines of I can see clearly now, the rings are there… As I go to higher and higher grits and my sample starts developing a cloudless luster, I realize I enjoy this a little too much.

 

Ana sanding. Image: N. Pederson

 

To me, sanding is a process full of Zen. It’s a process I can focus on while still letting my mind wander, and my thoughts usually get pretty philosophical- I have this foggy, unclear sample and slowly I take off its layers and layers of disparities. What results is a core in its purest form ready to tell the story of its life, and after a few hours of sanding I’m ready to listen.

Sanded Bhutanese cores. Image: N. Pederson

 

A well-sanded red oak core. Image: N. Pederson

_________

Ana Camila Gonzalez is a first-year environmental science and creative writing student at Columbia University at the Tree Ring Laboratory of Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. She will be blogging on the process of tree-ring analysis, from field work to scientific presentations.

 

The ‘Skinny’ on Antarctic Sea Ice

Ice Bridge Blog - Thu, 11/01/2012 - 15:48

Sea Ice on the left, touching up against an ice shelf along West Antarctica. (Photo from the camera in the belly of the plane). The plane is flying at ~1500 ft. of elevation – the estimated field of view is ~450 meters.

One piece of our IceBridge mission focuses on sea ice here in the south. Sea ice in the northern regions has been reducing at dramatic rates over the last decade, setting a new record just this year, but the story in the south is not so clear. In fact, there has been a buzz that Antarctic sea ice extent may just be increasing while the Arctic ice is decreasing. The issue is a complex one and involves not just sea ice extent (how much surface area the ice covers) but sea ice thickness (total volume of ice). While the extent of Antarctic sea ice is increasing, we also need to understand how the thickness is varying.

One of the trickier items in measuring sea ice is making the raw measurements of thicker and thinner ice. With only satellite measurements it is hard to get the true thickness of the ice, since the surface of the ice is often covered with snow that needs to be accounted for in our calculations. Using the snow radar on the IceBridge mission we can work out how much of what the satellite is measuring is actually snow.

Bellinghausen sea ice labeled to show open water (dark areas), dark grey ice (less than 15 cm thick) and thicker light grey ice. Image from the NASA IceBridge camera.


The Bellinghausen Sea sits just to the west of the Antarctic peninsula and in the southern winter months is generally covered with sea ice. We have flown two Bellinghausen sea missions this season – one to map out to the furthest edges and another to looks at the gradient of sea ice change as you move away from the coast or shoreline. The second Bellinghausen mission was important because in running profiles in and out from the coast it allowed us to measure how ice thickness patterns vary with distance from the shore. We need to understand these patterns of ice thickness in the southern end of the planet, how they may be changing and what connection they have to the climate system.

An pice of land ice that has separated as an iceberg (shows with a bluish coloring, approximately 30-40 meters in length) travels trapped amidst the floating sea ice in Bellinghausen Sea, Antarctica.


There has been much less study done on southern sea ice than northern sea ice because we get very few opportunities to make the measurements we need. We have two high priority flights to the Weddell Sea (on the eastern side of the Antarctic peninsula), but so far it has not been possible to fly them because of the weather. Hopefully before the end of this season we will be able to fly both these flights and fill in more pieces in the sea ice story.

For more on the IceBridge project visit:

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/icebridge/index.html

http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/icebridge/

A Recovery Mission

Ice Bridge Blog - Mon, 10/29/2012 - 14:23

Shackleton Ridge bordering the Recovery Ice Stream East Antarctica. (Photo M. Studinger, NASA)

Last year IceBridge had its first flights into East Antarctica when it flew some missions into the Recovery Glacier area. Recovery is a section of Antarctic ice that lies east of the peninsular arm of West Antarctica, tucked behind the Transantarctic Mountains, a dividing line that separates west from east. We know from Satellite data that Recovery and its tributaries have a deep reach, stretching well inland to capture ice and move it out into the Filchner Ice Shelf draining a large section of the East Antarctic ice sheet. But there is a lot we don’t know about Recovery because the remoteness of the area has limited the number of surveys.

Recovery Glacier with the lakes outlined in red. The yellow lines are the flight lines for the mission. (image courtesy of NASA IceBridge)

Several recent works have showed us that this area is important. Satellite measurements of the ice surface show small patches along the trunk of the glacier that are changing elevation more than their surroundings. These patches have been interpreted as lakes that lie under the ice sheet, coined the Recovery Subglacial Lakes. The lakes appear to drain and refill over time as the surface elevation over the lakes changes. To learn more about them and what they might tell us about the behavior of the glacier, we need to look under the ice.

But there is more we need to understand about this remote area, including simply needing to know the size and shape of the channel that delivers this ice out to the ice shelf and towards the Weddell Sea. Last year’s mission gave us some data points to outline the channel, but this year will help us provide a more complete imaging of what lies below this East Antarctic ice conveyor belt.

Recovery Glacier with “Which Way Nunatak” projecting up through the snow. A nunatak refers to an exposed section of ridgeline, or a peak that projects though the ice or snow in an ice field or glacier. (Photo by J. Yungel, NASA IceBridge)

We will fly cross sections along the lines of the retired ICESat satellite tracks, allowing us to compare the laser measurements we make of ice surface elevation to those made during the satellite mission. We will end the day flying along the Recovery channel to get another look at one of the interpreted lakes. Combining last years’ data, ICESat data and this year’s data will give us a better picture of the area that has been carved beneath the Recovery glacier, the amount of ice that can be moved through the glacier and its tributaries, and how the lakes under the ice might fit into the larger story.

Bharungamari – End of the Road

Geohazards in Bangladesh - Wed, 10/24/2012 - 11:52

Bachchu, organizer of the boat trip, with the crew of the M/V Kokilmoni. Bachchu is the one wearing a hat.

After waking up in the Rupsa River in Khulna, we watched as the Vanderbilt University group studying sedimentation around Polder 32 arrived on Bachchu’s boat.  They pulled up alongside and we spent some time catching up with each other’s trips before it was time to hit the road.  Our last site is nearly at the northernmost tip of Bangladesh.  This one is for tectonics.  The 2-km high uplift block of Shillong, is roughly coincident with the Indian state of Meghalaya (Abode of the Cloud). It was the site of a M8.1 earthquake in 1897, although the exact fault that ruptured is uncertain.   Our existing GPS indicate that it is moving south at ~7mm/y, but there is a suggestion that it is rotating clockwise, meaning the western end would be moving slower.  Our GPS is going in Bangladesh just to the west of Shillong.  However, the Brahmaputra River has eroded away the western margin and buried the remnants under sediments.  We have to be far enough north to be on the Shillong-Assam block and away from the several faults on its southern side.  We settled on the town of Bharungamari. It is literally the end of the road, only a few miles from the Indian border.

Humayun with his sister-in-law and nephew in his family home in Kushtia.

So we set off on a 400 km drive.  Along the way, we stopped at Kushtia and visited Humayun’s childhood home and met his sister-in-law and nephew.  Then lunch and across the Ganges River.  At our first flat tire, we has tea in a small shop – Humayun had them pour boiling water on the glasses for us.  At the second it was green cocoanuts.  The driver switched to the spare tire while Sarah attracted a large crowd of locals.  When we finally got to the hotel it was almost 10pm, about 12 1/2 hours after we left the Kokilmoni. At least it is one of the nicer hotels that I have stayed at in Bangladesh.

Sarah and Humayun sipping tea in a local shop while our flat tire was being repaired.

The next morning was a more leisurely 8am departure.  For breakfast, we were joined by Atiqulla, one of Humayun’s fourth year students who is from Bhurungamari.  He scouted the site and would lead us there, the local hospital.  We squeezed the extra person into the van and headed north.  We got there late morning, scouted out the roof and located a site for the antenna and for the receiver.  Getting there meant walking through a hallway with beds containing patients at the hospital. It seems we have had two modes during this trip, either start very early and then have breakfast at noon, or have breakfast first and then have lunch after 4pm.  This was the latter.  You could tell we were getting worn out.  We were having more trouble keeping track of some of the small screws and tools we needed.  We started running out of anchors for attaching cables to the wall.  Still, we got it done, although it is not our prettiest site..  However, Humayun did a great job with the grounding rod, having a channel cut in the concrete apron around the building, running the wire through a conduit and then recementing over it.

Fayaz climbs the ladder to the upper roof where we installed the antenna and solar panel. We had to be careful of the very large spaces between rungs.

By the time we were done, it was 3:30 and the hospital administrator and some of the staff came to see the site.  By the time Humayun finished explaining th purpose of the GPS, we were more than ready to get some lunch.  What I didn’t know was that we were invited to Atiqulla house for lunch.  We went to the house of his extended family, parents, siblings and nieces and nephews where we were served a feast.  The five of us ate while the family and a large group of neighbors looked on and chatted with us.  We had chicken, squab and beef along with boiled and pilao rice, paratha (bread), vegetables, dal (lentils), and cucumbers.  A veritable feast and a good ending for the last GPS installation.

 

Atiqulla, in the red shirt, with his family at their home in Bhurungamari.

We stuffed our selves and headed back to Dhaka, staying overnight at Bogra, 4 hours away. Along the way we passed celebrations of Durga Puja, the largest Hindu festival in Bangladesh, and lots of cattle and other animals being transported for Eid ul-Azha, the feast of the sacrifice, to be celebrated this weekend.  After arriving in Bogra, we celebrated with a beer at the first bar I’ve ever seen in Bangladesh.

A statue of Durga with her 10 arms in a Pandal set up for the festival.

Hiron Point in Sundarban

Geohazards in Bangladesh - Mon, 10/22/2012 - 00:45

Humayun and one of the two armed guards to protect us from tiger attacks.

We sailed out of the small channel we were anchored in to the Sibsa River and then to the south. We passed the western side of Polder 32 with a good view of the embankment that protects the island then passed into the Sundarbans forest with mangrove trees on either side of the wide river.  Hiron Point is close to the mouth of the river where it empties into the Bay of Bengal.  Perhaps empties is not quite the right word as the river is tidal, flowing both ways.  Moreover, the mud that maintains the Sundarbans probably comes from the sea.  The sediment discharged by the combined Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Rivers is swept westward along the coast and some of it is carried inland by tides and storms.  How much is still a topic of research. We prepared the equipment in the bow while watching for tigers along the shore. We reached our anchorage after about 8 hours and enjoyed a BBQ on the top deck. Then, at last, an early night.

The Hiron Point Tide gauge continuously measuring the water level relative to the land. Its decades-long record shows the combined effects of sea level rise and land subsidence.

Just after 6AM we loaded the launch and headed into the channel with the forest station after watching the sunrise.  We were accompanied by two armed guards, required in the Sundarbans, although we don’t expect tigers at the ranger station. The first thing we passed was the tide gauge, the reason we are putting the GPS as this particular location.  It is well known and its data is available in a global repository for tide gauge data. We landed at the third dock belonging to the forest service.  The path to the ranger station proudly announced the Sundarban as a World Heritage Site and through in a couple of caged tiger statues as well.  We met the forest ranger and were told that there is no cell phone service, contradicting what we had been told.  During the winter there is a weak signal. That was going to be a problem for downloading the data. We headed to the roof and for once, the ladder was already in place.

Sarah climbing the ladder up to the roof of the ranger station. One of the many eccentric ladders of Bangladesh in my collection.

The roof had a low brick wall around its perimeter.  Brick is much weaker than reinforced concrete and not considered stable enough for GPS.  Our two foot threaded rod was long enough to get us 5” into the concrete is we drove the long drill bit all the way to the chuck.  It would have to do.  The GPS went into a secure room with communications equipment.  By now our experienced team split into our familiar tasks.  Sarah figured out a way to get the cables to the roof by tying them to a rope after going through the wall.  After some effort, I managed to drill the wall to the maximum depth. With the poor to nonexistent cell signal, we set up a yagi directional antenna and pointed towards the closest cell phone tower some 60 km away.

 

Humayun, Sarah and myself sitting next to the completed antenna with the Sundarbans in the background.

We got everything set up, but the cellular connection didn’t work.  Next step is to hope that we can establish a connection in the winter and be able to seasonally download the data.  Having to return regularly to download the data or come back to set up a radio link would be expensive, although the Sundarbans is a wonderful place.  We said our goodbyes and headed back to the M/V Kokilmoni without having seen either a tiger or a crocodile, although we saw a lot of mudskippers, a personal favorite of mine while leaving.

 

Mudskippers, the small fish that spend most of their time jumping around out of the water for safety. They hold water in their cheeks so that they can breathe.

We weighed anchor and headed back north to Khulna.  The crew spotted a crocodile, but I missed it while uploading blogs.  Going north, we had left the calm of the Sundarbans and returned to the modern electronic world of cell phones and internet. One more GPS to go, but it is in far northern Bangladesh, a 380 km drive from Khulna where we get off the boat tomorrow.

THe four of us on the steps of the ranger station with the ranger (white beard), his staff, guards (in khaki), and crew from the Kokilmoni after the successful installation.

Polder 32

Geohazards in Bangladesh - Sun, 10/21/2012 - 07:34

Sitting on the open launch with all our equipment and luggage about to be taken to the M/V Kokilmoni.

When we finally got to Khulna, the second largest city in Bangladesh, Bachchu, who organized the boat, met us and led us down country roads to where we met our boat, the M/V Kokilmoni, our home for the next few days.  It is very large for the four of us and Bacchu, but faster and safer when there is still a risk of cyclones, as hurricanes are called in the Indian Ocean.  Luckily the forecast is for 10 days of clear sky and 90° weather.  When we got to the dock (ghat in Bangla), a crew from the ship was there with the launch to ferry us and our loads of equipment to the ship.  After stowing it all away, dinner at a reasonable time.

A woman fishes early in the morning by dragging a net through the water while the M/V Kokilmoni sits offshore.

The Kokilmoni sailed down the channel to near the location we will install our GPS on Polder 32.  Back in the 1960s, Bangladesh (then East Pakistan) constructed embankments or polders around much of the low-lying coastal region.  The region is crisscrossed by numerous interconnecting rivers separating the land into islands.  The government built embankments around many of them to protect them from flooding.  However, they also prevented the sedimentation necessary to maintain the land.  Without either flooding or sediment, the sediments compacted and the land subsided so that it is now 3-4 feet below the land outside the polders that continue to get sedimentation.  This set the stage for Cyclone Aila in 2009 and the storm breached the embankment in multiple places.  Initial repairs did not hold and the island was submerged for most of two years.  What should be done for the poldered areas in the face of continued sea level rise is a major question. Our GPS will provide much needed data on the rate of subsidence.

Humayun walking across the bamboo bridge connecting the dock to the land.

Polder 32 is a main focus site of a large project funded by ONR, the Office of Naval Research.  This project looks at not just the physical side of the balance of sea level rise, subsidence and sedimentation, but also the local population’s interaction with the environment and their potential response to disasters, such as temporary or permanent migration.  In fact, social scientists make up the most of the project.  The lead institution of this project is Vanderbilt University and there is a group of them here at Polder 32, too.  Unfortunately they are on the opposite side of the island, so we were unable to meet up.  Neither of us had the few hours to spare to sail over to the other.

Two of the M/V Kokilmoni crew members carrying the weatherproof case with the GPS across the island.

Anyway, we again prepared the GPS equipment into the night, then work up early to install the GPS. At least on the Kokilmoni, there was tea and cookies to help us cope with the 6AM start.  Plus we had a crew to help carry everything to the site, including a very heavy diesel generator to provide power for the drill.  They dropped us off at a dock connected by a bamboo bridge to shore, then moved to a place where they could offload the equipment.  They insisted on carrying everything for the 1-kilometer walk to the elementary school we will use.

View of the back of the embankment protecting the island and its field of rice.

In May, Dhiman and Steve did an elevation survey of the entire polder and set up a reference station at the school.  Then they left the GPS there to get a head start on collecting data with a temporary “campaign” set up.  When we got to the roof, we saw the installed antenna, but the GPS had failed. The flimsy portable solar panel could not hold up to the monsoon.  Still the data for May and June it go will be valuable and the antenna is already installed.  After a discussion with the headmaster about where to put the receiver, we put it in their computer room (solar powered).  Just outside is a statue of the Hindu goddess of education as this village is almost entirely Hindu.

One of the classes that was being taught at the elementary school while we were installing the GPS. School is 6 days a week, so Saturday was a school day.

We went to work, with our now experienced team splitting up the tasks, with Sarah doing the most technical parts.  I drilled the holes in the roof and bolted the solar panel down and secured the antenna cable to the roof.  When it was done, we headed back to the ship to head to Hiron Point in the Sundarbans, the world’s largest mangrove forest and nature preserve that is home to 350-400 tigers.  And we finally got to eat a lunch at a reasonable time.  As a Sundarban tourist boat, the Kokilmoni has very good food.

The four of us, Fayaz, Sarah, Humayun and myself sitting at or on the GPS box at the end of the job.

Khepupara to Kokilmoni

Geohazards in Bangladesh - Sun, 10/21/2012 - 07:04

Our silver van being loaded onto the ferry at Aricha. The van is 2/3 filled with our equipment.

We spent the entire day traveling to get to Khepupara, not far from the Bay of Bengal.  We had heard that there were problems at Mawa Ghat, the ferry crossing of the Padma River immediately south of Dhaka due to siltation on one side and erosion on the other.  We decided to head west to Aricha, the shorter ferry ride near the confluence where the Ganges and Brahmaputra meet to become the Padma.  Unfortunately, the traffic to get out of Dhaka on the western side was so bad, that it and the longer route lost us more time than using Mawa.  We didn’t arrive at Khepupara until after dark even though we started before 6AM.  At least after the ferry, we had beautiful scenery of rice fields and forests. I am always glad to get away from Dhaka traffic.

Driving through a country road enclosed by a bower of trees.

Khepupara is a site where a long tide gauge record shows a very rapid rise of water level implying sinking of the land.  However, tide gauges are not designed to be stable over decades, so I don’t trust the rate.  We are putting a GPS here to get our own subsidence rate in a few years time.  Humayun arranged for it to be installed at the Bangladesh Meteorology Department (BMD) weather radar station.  We stayed in their guesthouse, pretty basic accommodations, but it suited us just fine. We walked to a local restaurant for some delicious Bangladeshi food then started preparing the equipment to save time.  That took us up to about 11:30 PM with a few short power outages.  Then we crashed.

Assembling the GP station KHEP in the guesthouse at night.

The next morning we started at 6AM to install before breakfast. We went to meet the officials and check out the suitability of the roof of their headquarters building, once a ladder was found.  It was reinforced concrete, but the two good corners of the highest roof had a weather vane and anemometer installed.  The two back ones had their sky view blocked by a water tank.  We went back to the guesthouse and decided that its roof was the better option and had to carry everything back.  By the time we finished installing the antenna, the solar panels to power it, grounding rods and lightning protectors, etc. and Sarah checked that everything was working, it was 11AM. Breakfast became brunch for our famished group.

Sarah climbing unto the roof of the headquarters about to find out a water tank would block the sky view of the antenna.

This site took longer, in part, because it will have cellular communications.  The three coastal sites we are doing are very remote, particularly the other two that can only be reached by boat.  We decided to use cellular modems.  Every day UNAVCO in Boulder, CO will be able to call up the GPS and download the day’s data.  It will only have to be visited if it stops working.  Using solar panels with 2 car batteries to store power, the system is very self contained.

The antenna is visible at the left corner of the high part of the guesthouse roof while some boys walk by with a cow. THe BMD radar dome is visible in the background.

Two down.  Next, we drive northwest to get on a boat to take us to Polder 32.  An inland island whose embankments to protect the area from flooding failed during Cyclone Aila leaving it underwater for most of two years. Our late finish meant abandoning two secondary items on our agenda.  Visiting our compaction meter site to download the GPS data and installing a replacement GPS at Khulna University to replace the one that is no longer working.  Humayun will come down here in November to do it himself. While they are close to on our way, we don’t reach the boat until after dark.  It is the M.V. Kokilmoni, the boat that I lived on for two weeks last year when we did a month-long seismic cruise on the rivers throughout Bangladesh.

We stop for refreshing green cocoanuts, one of Sarah’s favorite drink and food, on the way to Khulna. First you drink the coconut water, then scoop out the jelly.

Launching the Season with a Key Mission – IceBridge Antarctica 2012

Ice Bridge Blog - Thu, 10/18/2012 - 16:13
Snow blowing off the ice

Snow blowing off the ice and out to sea as we approached our survey site on
a windy day in the Amundsen Sea (30 knot winds were beneath us at times)

October 2012 IceBridge Antarctica resumes … Mission goal…monitoring the polar regions…Mission target… determine changes in ice cover and thickness, refine models for future sea level rise…Mission instruments…airborne geophysics. Good luck team.

The crews have spent the last few weeks in Palmdale, where the DC8 is based, for instrument installation and test flights prior to our move down to Punta Arenas, our home base for IceBridge Antarctica.

View From the DC8

View from the DC-8 as it travels from Santigo to Punta Arenas. Clockwise from top left: forward camera, nadir (directly below) camera, forward bay, aft bay both filled with equipment and supplies.

Instrument Run Down: We are flying with the same instrument suite as last year allowing us to see above, below and through the ice. Laser altimetry, for surface ice measurements, measured by the NASA Airborne Topographic Mapper, visible band photography, to allow for draped imagery, from NASA’s DMS (Digital Mapping System), three radar systems from Cresis to measure the ice thickness, composition and bed imagery (MCoRDS, Snow and KU band) and gravity to refine what is under the ice with Lamont using Sander Geophysics’ AIRGrav gravimeter.

ATM and the gravimeter both require GPS base stations on the ground throughout the deployment. Combined with the GPS receivers on the plane these allow very precise positioning of the aircraft, and the sensors on board, which is critical to all the measurements we make. Setting up the GPS stations is one of the first jobs in Punta Arenas.

Our First Mission for 2012 is Thwaites Glacier – Going Straight to the Heart of the Changes. On our way out of Punta Arenas, out past the airport, I noticed this feature in the landscape:
Paleo Landscape
It appears to be the paleo-shoreline from the last interglacial (~80,000 yr BP), when sea level was higher than present. The very flat terrain results in any sea level change causing a large shoreline retreat. Evidence like this of changing shorelines, is one method scientists use to determine past sea level under a different climate. As we study different areas around the world, we must account for the local changes in how the land has risen or fallen. Changes in sea level can be a combination of an adjusted world/ocean wide (eustatic) sea level and the more local response from the rebounding (isostatic ) of the land that was previously depressed under a glacier as local ice is unloaded during deglaciation. Here the history of the shoreline was governed by a combination of changes in eustatic sea level and the isostatic response to deglaciation of the local ice load (De Muro et al. 2012). Putting together information from around the world we eventually build up a picture of the global changes that have occurred in sea level. Changes in sea level are directly connected to our work monitoring polar ice.

When we fly over the ice, we are monitoring how the ice sheets are changing at present, and learning how to understand the complicated interactions between the atmosphere, the ocean and the ice. Studying this helps us to understand which ice bodies are most likely to contribute to sea level, how quickly they changed in the past, and how quickly they might change in the future. It’s good to get this reminder as we head out on our first flight – especially as it is to survey the area where the glacier switches from being frozen to the land below [the bed] to where it goes afloat, called the ‘grounding line’.

Our first flight of the season will be along the Thwaites Glacier. Thwaites and Pine Island Glacier are two ‘glaciers of interest’, both large outlet glaciers that serve as conduits out of the ice mass of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), moving ice off the land into the surrounding ocean, and long considered its Achilles heel. Thwaites glacier has a very wide region of fast ice flow over its grounding line, and a relatively small change in that width has the potential to greatly increase the flux of ice into the ocean. Through the radar and gravity measurements collected on previous IceBridge missions we have been able to get a sense of the bed shape tipping downward as you move inland from the ice edge, and where pockets of water lie under the icesheet. Our goal today is to collect enough data to develop a more complete image of what lies under the ice in this area.

Image of the inward sloping bed, and the ice front pinning to a rocky ridge. From: Tinto, K. J. and R. E. Bell (2011), Progressive unpinning of Thwaites Glacier from newly identified offshore ridge: Constraints from aerogravity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L20503, doi:10.1029/2011GL049026.

2009 Operation IceBridge surveyed a grid in front of Thwaites grounding line and identified a ridge in the rock of the sea floor. In the last few months a large section of Thwaites glacial tongue broke off just seaward of that ridge. This mission will fly back and forth along nine lines parallel to the grounding line of Thwaites glacier. In combination with flights from previous years, this will give us a map of the grounding zone at 2.5 km spacing.

Thwaites Glacier

Thwaites Glacier from the air. Thwaites Glacier is so low and wide it is hard to get a good picture, but here you can see the fractured area on still-grounded ice where the fast flow is focused. You can also see the tracks from this region being carried out across the floating tongue. The grounding line is marked by the change to brighter white (more broken) ice just below the words “Fastest flow”. The eastern ice shelf is hidden by the wing of the plane, but the broken front of the floating tongue is in approximately the position of the submarine ridge of Tinto & Bell, 2011.

 

The tongue of Thwaites

Image of the tongue of Thwiates Glacier prior to the most recent ice ice section break off. Image from New Hampshire University MODIS Data Viewer tool.

We are hoping to learn more about goes on underneath this icy reach of the Earth each time we take flight.

To Comilla and Back

Geohazards in Bangladesh - Wed, 10/17/2012 - 23:35

Sarah in the workroom preparing the mounts for the solar panels that will power four of the GPS

I’m back in Bangladesh for the fourth time in the last two years, my eighth trip overall. It is the first time I’ve been here in October. It is about 90° and sunny. The monsoon is over, but water levels are still high. I have come to install more GPS around the country. With me is Sarah Doelger, an engineer from UNAVCO, an organization that provides technical support for research involving GPS. A number of out GPS stations in Bangladesh are systems on loan from UNAVCO. She has come along because we are establishing stations in remote areas and will use the cell phone system to call the receivers and download the data. I am also traveling around with Humayun Akhter, my partner for many years from Dhaka University, who keeps our network running, and his student Fayazul Kabir. The four of us will be traveling around the country by van and boat to install the stations to monitor tectonics and land subsidence.

Drilling through the roof to install the antenna monument at COML

As usual, we arrived at 4 AM after a full day or traveling and had to hit the ground running. After a short rest and shower at our hotel, we spent the day unpacking, preparing the equipment and buying the last few items.

Yesterday, was our first installation. We drove east to Comilla University sitting on the last exposed hill of the foldbelt. At a little over 100 ft high, it may not seem like much, but it stands out in a country where half the land is less than 10 ft above sea level. Thanks to bad traffic, it took 4 hours to get there, including a stop for breakfast on an island in the Meghna River. We met with the registrar over tea and cookies, then finally got to work about noon. This site fills a gap in our coverage of the Burma Arc foldbelt, a continuation of the same plate boundary as Sumatra, site of the 2004 M9.3 earthquake and tsunami. Here, the subduction zone is colliding with the largest delta in the world, folding the sediments into a broad set of folds.

Fayaz and Sarah go over the wiring for the GPS system.

Our GPS is measuring the rate of shortening of the foldbelt as strain builds up, possibly towards an earthquake. The antenna was attached to a 2-ft steel rod we cement into the roof of a reinforced-concrete University building. This is our preferred method for a country with almost no solid rock. The receiver, electronics and backup battery were installed in the control room of the large solar panel array just below the antenna. The only hiccup was tapping into their electric system for power and meshing their 2 wire system to our 3 wire system. Their system is not grounded, as we discovered when Sarah got shocked connecting our battery. He fingers have stopped tingling. It took a while to understand what we wanted and in the end we had to ground our system into the lightning protection grounding that we set up. It was all done in about 3 hours and stopped for a well-deserved lunch at about 4 PM on the way home, further hampered by traffic jams.

The antenna at our new GPS site COML with the fold of the Lalmai anticline visible in the background

This morning we packed all our stuff in a large van and are working our way through the traffic to get to SW Bangladesh for the next 3 stations. I am really looking forward to getting out of the city and its traffic and into the calmer countryside.

Dipping your feet in the water (A first year’s experience with fieldwork)

The Broadleaf Papers - Fri, 09/21/2012 - 09:07

By Ana Camila Gonzalez

My feet are soaking wet and I’m playing a game of Marco Polo, but I’m nowhere near a pool. It’s my second day on the job. It’s my second week of college. I have no idea what to expect.

I’m a first year undergraduate student at Columbia University, and I just began to work at the Tree Ring Lab at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory after being told by a few upperclassmen that the Lamont campus “just isn’t for freshmen”.

On Friday, September 21st, several members of the lab headed to New Paltz, NY to do some field sampling for a project aiming to uncover particularly major ecological events in the Eastern United States in the past three hundred years. I had just started to understand the basic concepts of differing tree rings. When I was told we’d be coring trees and identifying them, I smiled and nodded my head enthusiastically. You should see my poker face.

We get to the town of New Paltz and drive right through the center, heading towards Minnewaska State Park.

Looking over a hazed-out Palmaghatt Ravine, the Jurassic Park of Minnewaska State Park, NY. Photo: N. Pederson

After a deceivingly easy one mile hike on road-like paths, we get to the entrance point for the plot that was pre-designated Jackie, Dario, and Neil earlier in the spring. From that point on, I get to witness the transition from a suburban hike to what seems to be the set of Jurassic Park. We’re heading into the area surrounding a ravine, and my feet remind me that I’m not wearing waterproof boots. At some points I feel like I’m in a maze, and I start yelling MARCO! At that point I start remembering that I took the job because I wanted some hands-on experience in the field of environmental science. Grabbing the four-foot fern in front of me, I feel that I’ve made the right choice.

Tromping in the midst of the ‘Jurassic Park’ of the Palmaghatt Ravine. Photo: D. Martin

After some strolling, climbing and maneuvering, we finally reach the plot. Here I finally get to see what the overall project is really about.

While some forest ecosystems in the Western United States recycle nutrients and move through successional cycles at fairly large scales through natural and necessary fires, these processes are much slower and do not seem to occur at larger scales in the temperate forests of the Northeast. Trees experiencing suppressed growth only receive the necessary sunlight, water, and nutrients to experience quicker growth when surrounding competing trees perish, either through logging, disease, windstorms, or similar ecological processes. One can see this change as a drastic change in the width of tree rings: once a previously suppressed tree becomes dominant, the increased growth results in relatively wider tree rings.

When this drastic change is seen not only in the rings of one or two trees but across an entire forest ecosystem, a major ecological event is likely the cause. This project is aiming to find the causes of a few suspected major ecological events in the Eastern United States.

In New Paltz in particular, this project encountered a roadblock- some people believed our study forest in Minnewaska State Park was an old-growth forest, but so far the samples brought back have found evidence of logging in the late 1800s. The first samplings, using plots with a radius of 20 meters, returned few older trees that would be useful to the project. The radius was thus increased to 30 meters, and only trees with diameter greater than 40cm were cored past the 20 meter mark. After this adjustment, the second sampling returned double the amount of older trees. The real science can begin.

A raw increment core. Photo: D. Martin

So here I am, learning all of this for the first time, and I’m fascinated. Another new student and I learn to core a tree, and we realize how physically strenuous it is, laughing about having to lift weights to get in shape for future fieldwork. Like that’s ever going to happen. We’re introduced to a few different tree species during the process, and we begin to learn how to identify them. For the past few days I’ve walked around trying to identify every tree in Morningside Park.

At the end of the day, I’m feeling pretty fulfilled. The way back to the trail isn’t as cinematic as my entrance through Jurassic Park, but I still feel like I won’t get up after sitting down in the car.

Whew – Done for the day! Dario, Javi, Katelyn, Adam, Jackie, Ana, Ale, Jiangfeng rejoice at the end of a hard day’s work in front of a large black cherry. Photo: N. Pederson

That night, I got a rare chance to talk to my cousin, a botanist in Cuba. I told him about my day and he told me that if I start beginning to enjoy science, and the general act of finding answers to questions others might not have thought of asking, it becomes an obsession. He told me I wouldn’t be able to get away from it. I think I’m starting to get a sense of that.   I was hoping to land a job at the LDEO that would just let me begin to get my feet wet in environmental science. So far they’ve gotten soaked, but I have a feeling I’ve only started to dip my feet in the water.

 

Undergraduate research assistant, Ana Gonzalez. Photo: N. Pederson

 

_______

This is the first in a series of guest posts by Ana Gonzalez, a first-year environmental science and creative writing student at Columbia University. Ana is a research assistant at the Tree Ring Laboratory of Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory who will be blogging on the process of tree-ring analysis starting off with the joys of field work.

 

 

 

You must be choking

Tree Stories - Tue, 06/26/2012 - 08:54

Every year, when the height of the dry season comes to northern Thailand, the air gets foul. The extent of the problem is dependent upon, among many factors, the weather and more specifically the temperature profile of the air.  When a temperature inversion sets in, warm air aloft “caps” the cooler air that has descended into the valleys and prevents circulation (the normal state of the atmosphere is a lapse rate of decreasing temperature with altitude). As a result of an inversion, air pollution from cars, buses, burning, cooking, construction, etc., gets trapped in the valleys and basins and develops into an increasingly toxic brew. This doesn’t occur to extreme levels every year, but I have experienced it several times in Chiang Mai over the past decade, and this past season was pretty bad (see Thailand: pollution puts Chiang Mai off the tourist trail).

Photos of Chiangmai air pollution this past season: All pictures were taken at midday, no clouds, just smog.

The levels of fine particulates became very high, and this causes major respiratory problems for many people, the very young and very old in particular. But clearly it doesn’t do anybody any good. Because I am prone to bronchial infections, when the air got bad this year I suffered for weeks with a severe hacking cough that may have led to my herniated disk injury. In a wonderful twist of irony, I traveled to Bangkok, Saigon and Taipei to get cleaner air to help me overcome my illness. It worked too, but when I returned to Chiang Mai before my return home I began to deteriorate once again. (See my blog post, That Thousandth Cut, for the backstory.)

The costs of this problem are very high, due to major health problems for a large and poor population, and flight delays in the region due to poor visibility. Since it is a very specific set of conditions that leads to these inversion events, it would be important to explore the effects of regional temperature projections and how this might effect the occurrence and duration of future events. More importantly, are there ways to mitigate the effects of these inversions?  Obviously, producing less fine particulates and reducing the primary pollution sources is paramount, but for that there needs to be the will at the highest of levels, and since the overall problem knows no borders, there isn’t the will. Much of the blame each year goes to the hill tribes who burn the surrounding mountainsides, but it seems that much of the source is more localized than that, and much of it is regional pollution that sits over the entire region. Whatever the source, however, something needs to be done. The problem is that when the rains come the awful air is cleared out, and with it any sense of urgency to act. It is then forgotten about until the next inversion comes a year later.  This short-term memory does not help.

This from a Chiang Mai based website on the problem:

Air Pollution: Key facts from the World Health Organization

  • Air pollution is a major environmental risk to health and is estimated to cause approximately 2 million premature deaths worldwide per year
  • Exposure to air pollutants is largely beyond the control of individuals and requires action by public authorities at the national, regional and even international levels.
  • The WHO Air quality guidelines represent the most widely agreed and up-to-date assessment of health effects of air pollution, recommending targets for air quality at which the health risks are significantly reduced.
  • By reducing particulate matter (PM10) pollution from 70 to 20 micrograms per cubic metre, we can cut air quality related deaths by around 15%.
  • By reducing air pollution levels, we can help countries reduce the global burden of disease from respiratory infections, heart disease, and lung cancer.
  • The WHO guidelines provide interim targets for countries that still have very high levels of air pollution to encourage the gradual cutting down of emissions. These interim targets are: a maximum of three days a year with up to 150 micrograms of PM10 per cubic metre (for short term peaks of air pollution), and 70 micrograms per cubic metre for long term exposures to PM10.

More than half of the burden from air pollution on human health is borne by people in developing countries. In many cities, the average annual levels of PM10 (the main source of which is the burning of fossil fuels) exceed 70 micrograms per cubic metre.  The guidelines say that, to prevent ill health, those levels should be lower than 20 micrograms per cubic metre.

Chiang Mai isn’t the only place that suffers from temperature inversions that create health hazards, and in fact it is a common problem for much of the basin and range country in the western USA. My colleagues at Utah State University suffer through an annual period of very poor air that gets trapped along the Wasatch Range every winter (see  NOAA, National Weather Service Forecast Office, Salt Lake City, UT). Therefore I plan to avoid going to Logan in the dead of winter. Therefore I plan to avoid going to Logan in the dead of winter.

As bad as the problem is in Chiang Mai, it is even worse in other parts of Thailand, and across much of Southeast Asia. The link between anthropogenic pollution — inclusive of greenhouse gases — and a plethora of health issues ought to be at least as compelling a reason for us to cut emissions than the far more difficult to understand link to AGW (Anthropogenic Global Warming.)

As I have alluded to earlier, if people can see how these issues can impact them in more immediately pressing ways they are more likely to care about action. I always thought the AGW debate was too esoteric and too complicated to explain to a general population that is bombarded with too much information on a daily basis. Whereas the “hey, this stuff can kill you” message is one that just might get through. As for me, I plan to avoid these areas when the air gets like this, so my forays into Southeast Asia will try to avoid the February-March season, and for good measure April too because it is so bloody hot! I am lucky enough to have the freedom to choose my residence times. For most of Chiang Mai’s population they don’t have that luxury, and they just have to endure the best they can. In the meantime, if you travel to northern Thailand, Laos or Myanmar in February, you might want to bring your gas mask.

 

That thousandth cut

Tree Stories - Tue, 05/22/2012 - 08:13

PALISADES, NEW YORK — My hands floated above my head, rotating in all directions, swaying weakly like reeds rustling in a gentle breeze. At least that was the image I held in my head, clouded as it was by the anesthesia. Between my hands I saw Orawan at the foot of the bed, staring at me with great relief in her face.

“Hey baby, how are you?” I asked almost a little too cheerfully, as I dropped my arms to the bed. ”Come here, give me a hug.” I was seriously groggy, and it was difficult to stay awake. I have memories of an alarm going off next to my head and a nurse urging me to breathe, happening more than once. I am not sure if that really happened or if it was imagined, but my memories from those few hours are hazy.

“Hey, go easy there.” Orawan chided as she took my hand. ”Try not to move too much.” I could sense the massive relief she was feeling, after waiting nearly 4 hours to see me after I left her standing in the hallway as they wheeled me into the theater.

The surgery was a success, or so I was informed. At least I could still move my arms, and I didn’t see a respirator anywhere in sight. I quickly checked for a colostomy bag and was relieved not to find one. I was still dopey enough that I couldn’t feel any pain yet (that would come in time), and the intense pain I had lived with for the past five weeks appeared to be gone, as the bits of ruptured disk had been removed from my spine, relieving the pressure on my C7 nerve head.

So, what happened? The week before I returned from Asia, on March 12, I awoke with a burning agony running down my left arm that would not desist. I didn’t know the extent of my injury until I had gotten home to New York and had an MRI, after a week of unrelenting pain in my left arm and under my scapula. It was a very uncomfortable flight across the Pacific back to New York, made tolerable only because of a class upgrade and lots and lots of drugs.

The MRI showed that I had clearly ruptured the disk between my C6 and C7 vertebrae, and surgery was pretty much the only option. Though I don’t remember it, I had told Dr. Quest that I loved him, emphasizing that it was not in any manner that should elicit his alarm, but love just the same. He took care of me as promised, and now that it was over I felt a massive sense of relief. Now, six weeks after surgery I am mostly recovered, with only minor pains and numbness as reminders of those terrible 5 weeks.

So what has this to do with climate change? Well it is the reason for my absence from this blog, since I couldn’t sit at my desk for more than 20 minutes at a time, and the reason for me barely accomplishing any work for more than a month. And now that I am recovering, I face a mountain of work the likes of which I have never seen, but never have I been so thankful for being able to work.

It had surely been a run of bad luck since my last entry, starting with the infection in my scalp from hitting that doorjamb in Chiang Mai, an infection that was not even cured when I developed a terrible bronchitis from the smoke and haze of Chiang Mai’s annual February foul air festival (a phenomenon that is related to climate change). After my return from Yunnan I went to Taipei for a week of lectures and meetings, and Taipei’s far cleaner air began healing my lungs, but I was still with a very deep cough that would often wrench me from sleep. I then went to Vietnam for a week for the opening of the International Center for Tropical Highlands Ecosystems Research, with even cleaner air in Dalat, and that just about finished off the bronchitis. But scarcely two days back in Chiang Mai, back in the horrible air, and I began to cough once again. It was then, on Monday the 12th of March that I awoke in such pain. The doctors believe that it may have been the pressure from coughing that served as the final straw in rupturing my disk, but in truth the injury was probably the result of a lifetime of accumulated injuries and strains, football, hockey, basketball, coring trees and carrying a backpack. It could have been any and all of those things.

So, I am back now, ready to catch up on a few entries I have wanted to write. I apologize to Lori for the long delay and I hope she can forgive me, and welcome me back. The way I see it things can only go up from here, now that Dr. Quest delivered that thousandth cut.

A thousand cuts

Tree Stories - Thu, 02/02/2012 - 20:15

CHIANG MAI, THAILAND — The expression “death by a thousand cuts” refers to the practice in imperial China of killing someone by slicing them repeatedly, never very deep, until they die from their multiple, tiny wounds. I thought of this on Friday night when I hit my head on a door jam, cutting my scalp on the rock-solid, wooden edge. This happens to me frequently over here, since I am about 188 cm tall and the bathroom doors are always about 185 cm maximum. Just low enough that if I walk through upright I get a nice laceration on the top of my increasingly sparsely covered pate. I am pretty used to this by now, so aside from a momentary barrage of cursing, I didn’t think much more about it for the rest of the evening. However, the next morning, I awoke with a pain behind both ears and a bizarrely misshapen, triple-horned crest on the top of my head that was hot to the touch. Infection had occurred in about 5 hours. I went to Suan Dok Hospital the next day and the doctor said, “Yep, you have an abscess on your scalp, and the pain behind your ears is the swollen lymph nodes that drain the scalp.” He prescribed antibiotics and some wound dressings and told me to come see him next Saturday. After 3 days of medicine the infection is gone, and the swelling is down.

I have always heard how one needs to keep one’s wounds thoroughly cleansed in the tropics to stave off infection and sepsis, but I spend so much time here that I have gotten careless. I am reckless and clumsy, and I have had multiple wounds from a variety of things, and none has gotten infected to this stage. And it happened so rapidly that I was taken by surprise.  Death by a thousand cuts.

I leave for Xishuangbanna in southern China on Sunday. I am going there to lecture at the Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanic Garden hosted by my colleague Dr. Fan Zexin. Fan was one of the participants at the PAGES Asia2k workshop we just held in Chiang Mai, having been a contributor of tree ring data from the upper reaches of the Mekong River in Yunnan province. We are planning a collaborative project on studying the rare and endangered conifer Taiwania cryptomerioides that can still be found in some isolated stands. These trees are quite huge and can attain great age, but have been seldom studied for tree ring analyses and have the potential for great value in the upper Mekong. They are also being cut at an alarming rate everywhere they are found, so we are on somewhat of a salvage mission. If we are to get into the areas of Yunnan where the trees are found, it might have to be in late August after the winter cold and the worst of the monsoon rains.

One thing about developing tree ring reconstructions of streamflow, it has been shown that temperature from the upper headwaters regions can be as important a factor as rainfall for predicting baseline streamflow because of the importance of meltwater in keeping up base flow (i.e., flow in the dry season in the case of the Mekong, rather than the sizeable contribution of the annual monsoon rainfall that contributes to peak flow). This work is part of the overall goals of my Greater Mekong Basin project, and will give us the very important record of how the Mekong streamflow may have varied back in key periods of the past millennia. I will send an update from Xishuangbanna when I am there, and try to include some good pictures of the place. I have never been there so I don’t know what to expect.

It has been pointed out to me more than once that I have a tendency to talk about food a lot in my blogs. With this in mind, I will be sure to report on the great meals I am bound to have in Yunnan, and send some pictures as well.

 

My dinner with Usama

Tree Stories - Sun, 01/29/2012 - 14:03
The PAGES Asia2k Workshop participants

The PAGES Asia2k Workshop participants at EFEO, Chiang Mai.

CHIANG MAI, THAILAND — There was one table available, just being vacated, and Orawan and I hurried to grab it. The place was filled with foreign visitors — Australians, Israelis, Americans and Dutch — and they were talking loudly, drinking beer and wine, clinking forks and spoons noisily on plates filled with hummus, tabouleh and falafel. We fought our way through the tight crowd and made it to the table before the previous diners plates had been cleared. Andrew and Piyawit were both running late. This was it, the very end of the PAGES Asia2k workshop for us, and Andrew was the last participant to leave Chiang Mai. It was an exhausting week for us, and now it was over, the dust beginning to settle on a meeting whose objectives were not entirely met. In the midst of the noise and confusion a hand touched my shoulder and I turned to see the owner of Jerusalem Falafel, Zahavit, with a perplexed look on her face.

“What are you trying to do to me?” she said, looking serious. I realized I was smiling at her, in anticipation of our usually warm greeting, so I quickly sobered my expression to match hers.

“Im sorry?” I said. I had no idea what she was talking about. I watched as Orawan secured our table and then I turned to face Zahavit and give her my full attention.

“Why did you bring an Afghani into my restaurant the other night?” she was clearly distraught. “Didn’t you read the news this week? In Bangkok they arrested Al Qaeda members sneaking explosives into Thailand and some of them got away. I nearly had a heart attack when I saw him, but then I realized he was with you.”

“Oh, you mean Usama!” I blurted out, and quickly realized that saying his name likely didn’t help matters. “He’s not Afghan, he’s Pakistani.”I offered, perhaps helping even less. “He’s a great kid, a PhD student from Karachi studying with a colleague of mine. Really, he is a very sweet young man, and very bright.”

“I know now he is okay.” She said, more relaxed. “But at the time I nearly fainted. You should have told me you were bringing him when you made the reservation!” She scolded, and slapped my shoulder lightly to emphasize her concern.

The truth is, it never occurred to me that Zahavit, an Israeli expat living in Thailand, married to a local Chiang Mai man, and running this hugely popular restaurant since 1991, might be alarmed at my bringing Usama to her restaurant. I hadn’t seen any news all week, as I had been too busy with the workshop, but I also hadn’t planned to invite people to dinner here until the end of the day, choosing to come here primarily because we had three vegetarians in tow, and the food has never disappointed us. Zahavit and her husband, Chiang, are very friendly and most gracious, their food is excellent and it is one of my very favorite restaurants in Chiang Mai. Funny enough, when I asked Usama to join us, it occurred to me to ask if it bothered him that the place was Israeli. He looked at me, puzzled, and replied, “If the food is good and it is vegetarian, why would I mind?” Fair enough, I thought, and that was the end of it. But I can only imagine the alarm felt by Zahavit, at the sight of a young Pakistani man, decked out in full local garb and sporting the thickest black beard I have ever seen, walk into her restaurant and take a seat. It has apparently never happened before.

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Usama and I

Usama and I take a coffee break.

“Usama Zafer Muhammed” I read his name out loud from the workshop participant list. He had joined me on the long teakwood bench outside of the conference room at the Ecole Francaise D’Extreme Orient, the beautiful location along the banks of the River Ping that was hosting our workshop (EFEO). It was during a coffee break, and Usama and I had been discussing the software I had just demonstrated that allows us to create point-by-point regression (PPR) reconstructions of climate from tree rings (while the folks who developed it were busy in another room attempting to reconstruct temperature over Asia — more on that in a minute), or other proxy sources that can be calibrated with climate data.

“Well, your name will almost surely cause you to be delayed at U.S. customs, but other than that I don’t believe you would have any problems”. Usama had asked me, with real concern on his face, if he would be in danger if he came to visit the U.S. The question really threw me, because as Americans we don’t think of our country as being unsafe to others, but it goes without saying that we all think of Pakistan as being a certain death for us to visit. Usama is a devout Muslim, and several times during the workshop he would go into a separate room to pray before returning to our group. He had told me earlier, when talking about sampling in the remote mountains of his country, that even he wasn’t safe in some areas because his religious and political views were far too moderate. However, he added, that if I were to travel with him to some of the areas where he is known, that I too would be safe, and in these other areas, we would both be in danger. I thought about it and realized that there are places in America that I don’t feel safe either, and places where I am pretty certain he might be hassled for being a Muslim. We surely have our share of violence and bigotry in America, though it is a very small minority that would engage in such behavior. Usama was making the point that it was the same in Pakistan, though the constant war and instability in that region, coupled with poverty and lack of real education for many, certainly exacerbate things.

In 2007 I had cancelled my trip to visit Usamas research institute in Karachi due to an attack at the airport in the hour before my plane was to leave Bangkok. Just as we were queuing at the gate, an announcement was made that the flight had been cancelled and they were putting us up at the Novotel for the night. In the ensuing confusion and while we all milled around at the gate the story came out that it was an act of terrorism in Karachi that was responsible for our cancellation. Early reports told of more than 40 people killed, and that the Karachi airport was unsafe. They would put us up for the night and see how things looked in the morning. Among the people on this flight were several Pakistanis, a few Australians, and one American marine on the security team at the Consulate in Karachi, and I had time to talk with many of them. The Pakistanis were all very sad to hear the news of the flight cancellation, and seemed distraught that I was now leaning toward not going. They seemed intent on convincing me that it was not as unsafe as I was hearing and that I should really go. I was headed there at the request of my colleague, Dr. Moinuddin Ahmed, to help him conduct a dendrochronology symposium and training session that was going to introduce tree ring analyses into their University system for the first time. It seemed quite exciting at the time I agreed, but now it seemed a little too exciting. I called Orawan from the airport and as soon as I told her what was happening she said, “I really don’t think you should go. Is it really worth the risk? I would feel better if you came back to Chiang Mai.” As far as I was concerned that was the last word, but I still was tempted to go until the marine took me aside, out of earshot of the others.

“How important is it for you to be in Karachi for this meeting?” he asked.

“Well, I promised my colleague that I would be there, I really ought to try.”

“Listen, you should know that the U.S. considers Karachi to be the most dangerous city for Americans in Asia, less safe even than Kabul and Baghdad. Dude, there is no green zone there and the Consulate is far from the airport. There’s nothing we can do for you if you get into trouble, so unless you absolutely have to go, I wouldn’t.” That was all he said, and that was all I needed to hear. The next morning they had resumed the flight to Karachi as the situation had stabilized, but I was on the first plane to Chiang Mai, to the great relief of my wife.

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Paul Krusic, from Sweden, speaking with Usama

Paul Krusic, from Sweden, speaking with Usama at the workshop.

Usama presented his tree ring records from the high mountains of Pakistan, collected and processed over the past several years with Dr. Ahmed and other colleagues (see 500 years of Indus River flow modeling with tree rings), and he was here in Chiang Mai because he was among several other Asian researchers who were contributing their data to the overall PAGES Asia2k initiative that is charged with developing temperature reconstructions from Asia that ideally will cover the past 2 thousand years (hence, Asia2k). There are 2k initiatives for North and South America, Europe, Africa, Australia and even the Oceans. In all cases there are challenges of many kinds in producing the desired product (i.e., annual temperature — which will be used for the next AR5 model runs for the next IPCC assessment), but for Africa and Asia there are certainly greater obstacles than for other regions. Many of these difficulties are related to the fact that multiple, and often unstable, political entities comprise these continents, while many others are related to the culture of science in many of these countries where data sharing is simply not the norm. But one of the biggest obstacles is really that the proxy data are mostly precipitation sensitive more than they are temperature sensitive. As I have said previously, I believe that temperature (i.e., AGW related temperature) is only important because of its effects on the distribution of water on the planet, and it seems far more important to me that we understand the variability in precipitation around the globe, and to figure out how this might change in the future.

dr edward cook

Dr. Edward Cook addressing the workshop.

The director of my laboratory, Dr. Edward Cook, and I are both on the Asia2k committee, and at a meeting in Nagoya 2 years ago we worried how far behind our group was compared to others from the Americas, Australia and Europe, with regard to getting the necessary data from the research community. It was then that we hatched the idea (mainly it was Dr. Olga Solominas idea, and a great idea at that) to entice folks to submit their data in exchange for training in analyses that might speed up the process for some non-native English speakers to get their results published in top-tier international journals. The idea was to hold the meeting somewhere in Asia that was convenient for all participants, and not too expensive since our budget was quite limited. Since I was residing in Chiang Mai for several months each year, I offered to be a one-man local organizing committee (really two, to be fair, because of how much assistance I got from Orawan), and arranged to hold the meeting at the EFEO Chiang Mai center, just outside of Chiang Mais inner city wall and along the banks of the River Ping.

The meeting was three days long, and our primary objective was to use the newly contributed data (mostly tree rings, but some historical documentation-derived indices from Japan and China, some ice core data, and some lake sediment data as well) to produce a new temperature reconstruction from the Asian continent. Without going into too much detail here (stay tuned for that), we were not able to get a fully calibrated and verified reconstruction in the short time we had, and with the data set we ended up with, but we are a work in progress. There are a lot of difficulties associated with doing these kinds of reconstructions, not least of which is data quality control. At the end of the day, we are going to have about a 500-year temperature reconstruction for Asia, a far cry from the 2,000-year target, but better than a kebab skewer in the eye.

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Usama grinned broadly and extended his hand to me and I shook it. He was genuinely grateful for the hospitality he was shown while in Chiang Mai, and his presence was one of the pleasant surprises for me. He and our Nepali participant, Narayan Gaire, were leaving the guesthouse together in a red sawng taew (the two-benched pickup trucks that are used in Chiang Mai as public transportation) to go to the airport. They had become good friends over the past few years having met at several regional workshops. These are fledgling dendrochronology programs in both of these countries, and it is remarkable to see the enthusiasm with which these two young men embrace learning this field of study. It will be because of the efforts of people like this that we are to have any chance of improving living standards across the globe, through education and engagement in the work the rest of us are doing — as equals and not perpetually as aid projects.

I was most impressed with these two fine young men, and I wished them both well on their journeys home. It saddens me terribly that our world is so unstable, and that we have the kinds of hatred that leads us to war with peoples in far flung lands, who have so little in material wealth, and yet strive to have the kind of enriched life that we take for granted. It is for that reason that I will think fondly of our little workshop, flawed as it was, and on my dinner with Usama, as a reminder of what is truly important.

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