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The Bush Administration's
energy plan, which contains 105 initiatives ranging
from loosening regulations on oil and gas exploration
to tax credits for fuel-efficient cars, contains "thought-provoking
ideas - both good and bad," said Roger Anderson,
director of the Energy Research Center at the Earth
Institute's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.
"The Bush energy
plan, to its credit, takes on in a coherent way all
of the supply and demand elements that make up the nation's
energy system," said Anderson. "This is the
first time such a plan has been put forth in national
policy circles since the Carter Administration in the
late 1970s. All in all, it is a good debate that is
much needed in this country."
However, Anderson
noted some shortcomings in the plan, which was released
on May 17.
"The plan calls
for development of a national transmission network to
deliver electricity, but doesn't supply funding for
research and development into such a system," said
Anderson. "There are nine separate and disconnected
power grids in the United States today. Excess electricity
from one region cannot be easily transported to satisfy
shortages in any of the other regions, and many states
like it like that.
"The Bush plan
to connect them into a national transmission network
is both necessary and scary, much like the interstate
highway network must have been when President Dwight
Eisenhower first proposed it in the 1950s," Anderson
added. "With a national grid, we can solve local
shortages. But we are a long way from realizing this
ideal and need to commit resources to developing such
a system."
Anderson also praised
the Bush plan's critics, who advocate a greater focus
on conservation than the president's blueprint calls
for.
"All sides on
the political front are right - we must both increase
supply and increase efficiency and conservation in order
to see a future where the global energy system is again
in efficient equilibrium," said Anderson.
Anderson said the
nation's energy needs are unlikely to diminish any time
soon. The rise of the personal computer and the Internet
have spurred electricity consumption across the nation,
most notably in California, contributing to the state's
energy crisis. These difficulties could spread to other
parts of the country, including New York City.
"Unlike a television
and other home and office electronics, personal computers
that are attached to the Internet use most of their
power invisibly‹in servers, routers and other
trafficking infrastructure not seen by the consumer,"
said Anderson. "California is only the first to
experience this in the form of an energy crisis in 2001
because it is the heaviest consumer of electricity in
the country."
Anderson noted that
spikes in electricity use followed the introduction
of three technological breakthroughs: light and motors
in the early 1900s, air conditioning in the 1950s and
the rise of personal computers and the Internet in the
1980s and 1990s. However, while the United States has
been able to absorb earlier demands of electricity,
the use of electrical power by high-tech devices continues
to grow. Anderson cites the following developments to
bolster his conclusion:
There were 20,000
servers in the world in 1995; today, there are six million
servers for 200 million personal computers.
The amount of power required to push a single byte of
information across the World Wide Web is cut in half
every 18 months, but the number of bytes traveling the
Web is doubling every 12 months.
Electricity consumption per home equipped with a personal
computer connected to the Web is increasing by 8 percent
a year.
In addition, Anderson says the rise of wireless technology
is contributing to the nation's electricity demand.
"A web-enabled Palm Pilot uses as much electricity
as a heavy-duty refrigerator," said Anderson.
Analyzing previous
research, Anderson cites specific surges in California's
electricity demand to illustrate how high technology
is sapping the state's energy supply:
In the past 20 years,
electricity demand in California has grown 2 percent
each year while there has not been a commensurate increase
in power generation.
Electricity consumption in the Silicon Valley is growing
three times faster than anywhere else in California.
The use of power by California-based Oracle and Sun
Microsystems in 2000 amount to a 7-percent increase
from 1999 levels; by contrast, industrial manufacturing
has had a 10-percent drop in electricity consumption
since 1998.
"Electricity, the primary energy source of the
future, is responsible for many new technologies, but
not without extracting a price from the population,"
Anderson said. "A new global electricity grid similar
to the global Internet and Zero Emission Power Plants
that are relatively small in size and cost for their
output is on the horizon. However, brace yourself for
a rugged five-to-ten year period as we transition from
this old electricity world of the power utility to the
new, electrical-grid dominated energy world."
related web pages:
June 6 2001 New York
Times Editorial/Op-Ed by Roger Anderson Wattage
Where It's Needed
about PETROCHANGE
Knowledge Network
Catalyzing Innovation
and Change in the International Petroleum Industry
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