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A unique collaborative project assessing natural
disasters and the risks to human populations and economic activity
will provide a quantitative basis for risk-conscious investments
in sustainable development worldwide. This project draws on expertise
from across The Earth Institute at Columbia University, including
Earth Institute fellows and undergraduate students. The final report, “Global
Natural Disaster Risk Hotspots,” will be published by The
World Bank this winter.
Natural disaster risk hotspots are countries
or regions whose populations or economic activities are at extreme
risk from multiple natural hazards. The hotspots project team compiled
event data for six natural hazards—earthquakes, volcanoes,
landslides, floods, drought, and cyclones—to identify regions
of significant hazard activity throughout the world. The hotspots
maps show the specific regions of the world at highest risk from
natural disasters.
Using population data and Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) at the sub-national level, the team and their international
partners then assessed the risks of mortality and economic loss
for combined hazards.
“What makes this even more significant
is that poorer countries in the developing world are more likely
to incur repeated disaster-related losses and costs and get caught
in the recovery trap. In addition to the loss of human life and
assets, these countries have to meet the costs associated with
disaster relief, recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction. With
this cycle repeating itself every few years, developing countries
find themselves in a vicious cycle of recovery without the ability
to move forward to get out of poverty and achieve sustainable development,” said
Dr. Dilley, research scientist at the International Research Institute
for Climate Prediction (IRI).
Dr. Chen, senior research scientist and Deputy
Director of the Center for International Earth Science Information
Network (CIESIN), added, “World Bank data indicates that
emergency loans and reallocation of existing loans for disaster
reconstruction from 1980 to 2003 totaled $14.4 billion with $12
billion going to countries with the most significant natural disaster
hotspots. This tells us that we need to work to reduce the vulnerability
of these developing countries to natural disasters as part of any
poverty reduction strategy. “
The hotspots project included several case studies
to learn what specifically can be done to reduce vulnerability
and therefore the risk from these hazards. The Caracas, Venezuela
case study showed that the vulnerability of urban areas can be
reduced by incorporating locally appropriate risk-sensitive strategies
into urban development planning. Under the direction of Professors
Sig Grava and Klaus Jacob, faculty and students from Columbia’s
Graduate School of Architecture, Planning and Preservation completed
this study using an innovative instructional model based on student
teamwork.
Dr. Arthur Lerner-Lam, Doherty Senior Research
Scientist at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and Director
of the Center for Hazard and Risk Research (CHRR), said, “The
hotspots project has provided exceptional opportunities for Earth
Institute postdoctoral fellows and undergraduates to do follow-on
research. For example, two undergraduates, Matthew Isanuk and Alexandra
Skorik, are looking at the link between the persistent occurrence
of multiple hazards and reductions in economic growth. In developing
countries, there is a high degree of correlation between multiple
hazards occurrence and growth. Such correlations could be used
to calculate the value of investments in mitigation that could
reduce disaster recovery costs and thus the post-disaster debt
load of poor countries.”
Earth Institute postdoctoral fellows are also
pursuing research motivated by the hotspots project. Dr. Guillermo
Franco, a second-year fellow specializing in engineering, is examining
the costs and benefits of investments in structural retrofitting,
which reduces the potential for damage to buildings and infrastructure.
Dr. Bijan Khazai, a first-year fellow, is developing
plans to do country-level disaster risk assessments in Iran. Such
country-level hotspot studies can be done at higher resolution
than the global assessment, leading to more specific and appropriate
disaster risk reduction strategies.
The reduction of risks from natural disasters
is a priority for the development community. The hotspots project
provides the basis for identifying the countries or regions where
disaster risk reduction would have the most significant impact
on sustainable development.
The Earth Institute provided seed funding for
this assessment, a joint project of the World Bank’s Hazard
Management Unit (HMU) and the Earth Institute’s CHRR, IRI
and CIESIN. The core project team includes researchers from the
World Bank’s Development Economics Research Group, the International
Center for Geohazards at the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute,
as well as the World Bank’s HMU and the Earth Institute.
Many groups from other national and international institutions
contributed data and analysis. The project co-leaders at the Earth
Institute are Drs. Maxx Dilley, Robert Chen and Arthur Lerner-Lam. |
