A Markov model for seasonal forecast of Antarctic sea ice

LDEO Publication: 
Publication Type  Journal Article
Year of Publication  2004
Authors  Chen, D. K.; Yuan, X. J.
Journal Title  Journal of Climate
Volume  17
Issue  16
Pages  3156-3168
Journal Date  Aug
ISBN Number  0894-8755
Accession Number  ISI:000223374000007
LDEO Publication Number  6577
Key Words  nino southern-oscillation; interannual variability; ocean; enso; atmosphere; climate; winter; predictability; prediction; pacific

A linear Markov model has been developed to simulated and predict the short-term climate change in the Antarctic, with particular emphasis on sea ice variability. Seven atmospheric variables along with sea ice were chosen to define the state of the Antarctic climate, and the multivariate empirical orthogonal functions of these variables were used as the building blocks of the model. The predictive skill of the model was evaluated in a cross-validated fashion, and a series of sensitivity experiments was carried out. In both hindcast and forecast experiments, the model showed considerable skill in predicting the anomalous Antarctic sea ice concentration up to 1 yr in advance, especially in austral winter and in the Antarctic dipole regions. The success of the model is attributed to the domination of the Antarctic climate variability by a few distinctive modes in the coupled air-sea-ice system and to the model's ability to detect these modes. This model is presently being used for the experimental seasonal forecasting of Antarctic sea ice, and a current prediction example is presented.


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URL  <Go to ISI>://000223374000007