Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America

Publication Type  Journal Article
Year of Publication  2007
Authors  Seager, R.; Ting, M. F.; Held, I.; Kushnir, Y.; Lu, J.; Vecchi, G.; Huang, H. P.; Harnik, N.; Leetmaa, A.; Lau, N. C.; Li, C. H.; Velez, J.; Naik, N.
Journal Title  Science
Volume  316
Issue  5828
Pages  1181-1184
Journal Date  May 25
ISBN Number  0036-8075
Accession Number  ISI:000246724300040
Key Words  storm tracks; drought; circulation; simulation; cycle

How anthropogenic climate change will affect hydroclimate in the arid regions of southwestern North America has implications for the allocation of water resources and the course of regional development. Here we show that there is a broad consensus among climate models that this region will dry in the 21st century and that the transition to a more arid climate should already be under way. If these models are correct, the levels of aridity of the recent multiyear drought or the Dust Bowl and the 1950s droughts will become the new climatology of the American Southwest within a time frame of years to decades.


171GQTimes Cited:16Cited References Count:21

URL  <Go to ISI>://000246724300040
DOI  DOI 10.1126/science.1139601