Global Decadal Hydroclimate Predictability, Variability and Change: A Data-Enriched Modeling Study (GloDecH)
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University 61 Route 9W Palisades, NY 10964

The GloDecH project continues our work on North American Drought Research developing a global approach to hydroclimate variability and change. Our drought research to date is: here

A summary of the GloDecH research is at the bottom of this page. Here we provide more detailed treatment of a few of our on going projects.

NEW NOAA DROUGHT TASK FORCE ASSESSMENT REPORT: Causes and Predictability of the 2011 to 2014 California Drought


Climate and Drought: The State of the Science

Developing an Early Warning System for Anthropogenic Hydroclimate Change

Does global warming cause intensified interannual hydroclimate variability? I.e. more droughts AND floods?

How to do diagnostic calculations of the atmospheric moisture budget in reanalyses and climate models

Reconstructing spatial fields of climate variability over the last two millennia

The poleward shift of mid-latitude storm tracks in the 21st Century


Causes of the late 20th Century drying of the Mediterranean region


Atmosphere and Ocean Origins of North American Droughts

Causes and Dynamics of the early 20th Century North American Pluvial

Did active dunes and dust storms intensify the North American Medieval megadroughts?

Projections of declining surface water availability in the southwest U.S. in coming decades

The Future of the North American Monsoon

The Importance of the Montreal Protocol for Protecting the Earth's Hydroclimate

The 1960s drought and subsequent pluvial in New York City's Catskill Mountains watershed


Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and its Climate Impacts

Atlantic Sector Climate Variability over the Last Millennium and the Near-Term Future

Winter 1783/4: an analog of winter 2009/10 or was the eruption of Laki to blame?


Summary of GloDecH project:

1. Using instrumental data, reanalyses, SST-forced and forced and free coupled GCMs, fully characterize for key regions (SWNA, MENAME, Southwest North America Mediterranean-North Africa-Middle East monsoon Asia) the mechanisms of natural variability of, and forced variations in, hydroclimate on the interannual to decadal (I/D) timescale.

2. Use this distinction to develop ‘dynamical early warming systems’ for forced hydroclimate change.

3. Use multicentury pre-I records (mostly trees) to characterize decadal to centennial (D/C) hydroclimate variability in these regions.

4. Assess ability of coupled GCMs to properly represent I/D and D/C hydro variability and mechanisms.

5. Develop new multi-proxy climate field reconstructions with multiple methods etc.

6. Develop new AGCM simulations for past centuries forced by coral-reconsructed SSTs.

7.  Think about how to combine coupled and AGCM simulations and CFRs into best guess estimates of last millennium climate history.

8. Controlled GCM experiments and diagnostic modeling on sensitivity to CO2, O3, solar variations, SST variations.

9. Develop probabilistic predictions for key regions based on, but going beyond, AR5.