Global Decadal Hydroclimate Predictability, Variability and Change: A Data-Enriched Modeling Study (GloDecH)
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University 61 Route 9W Palisades, NY 10964

The GlodecH approach is a continuation of our drought research, the list of publications for which is here.

The GloDecH Program began October 2010. Publications from the program published or submitted since then are listed below by year or alphabetical:

NOAA DROUGHT TASK FORCE ASSESSMENT REPORT: Causes and Predictability of the 2011 to 2014 California Drought


Cook, E. R., R. Seager, Y. Kushnir, K. Briffa, U. Buntgen, D. Frabk, P. Krusic, W. Tegel, G. van der Schrier, L. Andreu-Hayles, M. Baillie, C. Baitttinger, A. Billamboz, N. Bleicher, N. Bonde, D. Brown, M. Carrer, R. Cooper, K. Cufar, C. Dittmar, J. Esper, C. Giggs, B. Gunnarson, B. Gunther, E. Gutierrez, K. Haneca, S. Helema, F. Herzig, K.-U. Heussner, J. Hofman, P. Janda, R. Kontic, N. Kose, T. Kyncl, T. Levanic, H. Linderholm, S. Manning, T. Melvin, D. Miles, B. Neuwirth, K. Nicolussi, P. Nola, M. Panayotov, I. Popa, A. Rothe, K. Seftigen, A. Seim, H. Svarva, M. Svoboda, T. Thun, M. Timonen, R. Touchan, V. Trotsiuk, V. Truet, F. Walder, T. Wazny, R. Wilson, C. Zang, 2015: Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common EraScience Adv., 10.1126/sciadv.1500561.

Williams, A.P., R. Seager, A.K. Macalady, M. Berkelhammer, M.A. Crimmins, T.W. Swetnam, A.T. Trugman, N. Buenning, D. Noone, N.G. McDowell, N. Hryniw, C.I. Mora and T. Rahn, 2015: Correlations between components of the water balance and burned area reveal new insights for predicting forest fire
area in the southwest United States.
Inter. J. Wildland Fire, 24, 14-26,

Xiaoqlong, Li and M. Ting, 2015: Recent and future changes in the Asian monsoon-ENSO
relationship: Natural or forced?
Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, doi:10.1002/2015GL063557.

Xiaoqiong, L., M. Ting, C. L and N. Henderson, 2015: Mechanisms of Asian Summer Monsoon Changes in Response to Anthropogenic Forcing in CMIP5 Models. J. Climate, 28, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00559.1.

Yang, W., R. Seager and Mark A. Cane and B Lyon, 2015: The Annual Cycle of East African Precipitation. J. Climate, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00484.1.


Cook, B.I., J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager and S. Coats, 2014: Global warming and 21st century drying. Climate Dynamics,. doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2075-y.

Cook, B.I., J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager and E.R. Cook, 2014: Pan-continental droughts in North America over the last millennium. J. Climate, 27, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00100.1.

Cook, B.I., R. Seager and J.E. Smerdon, 2014: The worst North American drought year of the last millennium: 1934. Geophys. Res. Lett, 41, doi:10.1002/2014GL061661.

Hoerling, M., J. Eischeid, A. Kumar, R. Leung, A. Mariotti, K. Mo, S. Schubert and R. Seager, 2014: Causes and Predictability of the 2012 Great Plains Drought. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society: 269-282.

Seager, R., D. Neelin, I. Simpson, H. Liu, N. Henderson, T. Shaw, Y. Kushnir, M. Ting and B. Cook, 2014: Dynamical and thermodynamical causes of large-scale changes in the hydrological cycle over North America in response to global warming. J. Climate, 27, 7921-7948, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00153.1.

Seager, R. and M. Hoerling, 2014: Atmosphere and Ocean Origins of North American Droughts. J. Climate, 27, 4581-4606.

Seager, R., H. Liu, N. Henderson, I. Simpson, C. Kelley, T. Shaw, Y. Kushnir and M. Ting, 2014: Causes of increasing aridification of the Mediterranean region in response to rising greenhouse gases. J. Climate, 27, 4655-4676, DOI: 10:1175/JCLI-D-13-00446.1.

Yang, W., R. Seager, M.A. Cane and B. Lyons, 2013: The East African Long Rains in Observations and Models. J. Climate, 27,7185-7207, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00447.1.


Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager, B.I. Cook and J.F. González-Rouco, 2013: Megadroughts in Southwestern North America in ECHO-G Millennial Simulations and their Comparison to Proxy Drought Reconstructions. J. Climate, 26, 7635-7649, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00603.1.

Cook, B.I., and R. Seager, 2013: The response of the North American Monsoon to increased greenhouse gas forcing. J. Geophys. Res. (Atmospheres), 118,1690-1699, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50111.

Cook, B.I., R. Seager, R.L. Miller and J.A. Mason, 2013: Intensification of North American megadroughts through surface and dust aerosol forcing. J. Climate, 26, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00022.1.

Deplazes, G., A. Lückge, L.C. Peterson, A. Timmermann, Y. Hamann, U. Röhl, K.A. Hughen, C. Laj, M.A. Cane, D.M. Sigman and G.H. Haug, 2013:  Links between tropical rainfall and North Atlantic climate during the last glacial period. Nature Geoscience  doi:10.1038/ngeo1712.

Gonzalez, P.L.M., L.M. Polvani, R. Seager and G.J.P. Correa, 2013: Stratospheric ozone depletion: a key driver of recent precipitation trends in South Eastern South America. Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1777-x.

Li, J., B. Wang, M. A. Cane, S.-Y. Yim and J.-Y. Lee, 2013: Divergent global precipitation changes induced by natural versus anthropogenic forcing. Nature, doi:10.1038.

McCormick, M., U. Büntgen, M.A. Cane, E. Cook, K. Harper, P. Huybers, T. Litt, S.W. Manning, P.A. Mayewski, A.M. More, K. Nicolussi and W. Tegel, 2013: Climate change under the Roman Empire and its successors, 100 B.C. - 800 A.D. A first synthesis based on multi-proxy natural scientific and historical evidence. J. Interdisciplinary History, XLIII:2, 169-220.

Pederson, N., A.R. Bell, E.R. Cook, U. Lall, N. Devineni, R. Seager, K. Eggleston and K.J. Vranes, 2013: Is an Epic Pluvial Masking the Water Insecurity of the Greater New York City Region?  J. Climate, 26, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00723.1.

Seager, R., 2013: Decadal Hydroclimate Variability Across the Americas. In Proceedings National Taiwan University Climate Change Conference, September 2013.

Seager, R., L. Goddard, J. Nakamura, N. Henderson and D. Lee, 2013: Dynamical causes of the 2010/11 Texas-northern Mexico drought. J. Hydrometeorology, 15, 39-68, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-13-024.1.

Seager, R. and N. Henderson, 2013: Diagnostic computation of moisture budgets in the ERA-Interim Reanalysis with reference to analysis of CMIP-archived atmospheric model data. J. Climate, 26, 7876-7901, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00018.1.

Tierney, J.E., J.E Smerdon, K.J. Anchukaitis and R. Seager, 2013: Multidecadal variability in East African hydroclimate controlled by the Indian Ocean. Nature, 493, doi:10.1038/nature11785.

Williams, A.P., C.D. Allen, A.K. Macalady, D. Griffin,C.A. Woodhouse, D.M. Meko, T.W. Swetnam, S.A. Rauscher, R. Seager, H.D. Grissino-Mayer, J.S. Dean, E.R. Cook, C. Gangodagamage, M. Cai and N.G. McDowell, 2013: Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality. Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 292-297, doi: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1693.

Wu, Y., R. Seager, T.A. Shaw, M. Ting and N. Naik, 2013: Atmospheric Circulation Response to An Instantaneous Doubling of Carbon Dioxide Part II: Atmospheric Transient Adjustment and its Dynamics. J. Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00104.1.

Wu, Y., L.M. Polvani and R. Seager, 2013: The Importance of the Montreal Protocol in Protecting the Earth's Hydroclimate. J. Climate, 26, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00675.1.

Yang, W., R. Seager and M.A. Cane, 2013: Zonal Momentum Balance in the Tropical Atmospheric Circulation during the Global Monsoon Mature Months. J. Atmos. Sci., 70, 583-599, doi: 101175/JAS-D-12-0140.1.

Zhang, R., T.L. Delworth, R. Sutton, D.L.R. Hodson, K.W. Dizon, I.M. Held, Y. Kushnir, J. Marshall, Y. Ming, R. Msadek, J. Robson, A.J. Rosati, M. Ting and G.A. Vecchi, 2013: Have Aerosols caused the observed Atlantic Multidecadal Variability? J. Atmos. Sci. (early online): doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-12-0331.1.


Karnauskas, K.B., J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager and J.F. Gonzáles-Roucho, 2012: A Pacific Centennial Oscillation Predicted by Coupled GCMs. J. Climate, 25, 5,943, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00421.1

Kelley, C., M. Ting, R. Seager and Y. Kushnir, 2012: Mediterranean precipitation climatology, seasonal cycle, and trend as simulated by CMIP5. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L21703, doi:10.1029/2012GL053416.

Li, B., and J.E. Smerdon, 2012: Defining spatial assessment metrics for evaluation of paleoclimatic field reconstructions of the Common Era. Environmetrics, doi:10.1002/env.2142.

Ruff, T.W., Y. Kushni and R. Seager, 2012: Comparing Twentieth- and Twenty-First-Century Patterns of Interannual Precipitation Variability over the Western United States and Northern Mexico. J. Hydrometeorology, 13: 366-378, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-10-05003.1.

Seager, R., M. Ting, C. Li, N. Naik, B. Cook, J. Nakamura and H. Liu, 2012: Projections of declining surface-water availability for the southwestern United States. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate1787.

Seager, R., N. Pederson, Y. Kushnir, J. Nakamura and S. Jurburg, 2012: The 1960s drought and the subsequent shift to a wetter climate in the Catskill Mountains region of the New York City watershed watershed. J. Climate, 25, 6721-6742, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00518.1.

Smerdon, J.E., 2012: Climate models as a test bed for climate reconstruction methods: pseudoproxy experiments. WIREs Climate Change, 3:63-77, doi:10.1002/wcc.149.

Wahl, E.R., and J.E. Smerdon, 2012: Comparative performance of paleoclimatic field and index reconstructions derived from climate proxies and noise-only predictors. Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L06703, doi:10.1029/2012GL051086.

Wu, Y., R. Seager, M. Ting, N. Naik and T.A. Shaw, 2012a: Atmospheric Circulation Response to An
Instantaneous Doubling of Carbon Dioxide Part I: Model Experiments and Transient
Thermal Response in the Troposphere.
J. Climate, 25, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00284.1, 2862-2879.


Cook, B.I., R. Seager and R.L. Miller, 2011: On the causes and dynamics of the early twentieth century North American pluvial. J. Climate, 24, doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI4201.1.

Cook, B.I., R. Seager and R.L. Miller, 2011: The impact of devegetated dune fields on North American climate during the late Medieval Climate Anomaly. Geo. Res.. Lett., 38, L14704, DOI:10.1029/20111GL047566.

D'Arrigo, D., R. Seager, J.E. Smerdon, A.N. LeGrande and E.R. Cook, 2011: The anomalous winter of 1783-1784: Was the Laki eruption or an analog of the 2009-2010 winter to blame? Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L05706, DOI:10.1029/2011GL046696.[AGU Research Spotlight (pdf)] [GRL Editor’s Highlight] [EI Blog Post] [Our Amazing Planet Post] [NOAA/OAR Hot Item].

Kelley, C., M. Ting, R. Seager and Y. Kushnir, 2011:  The relative contributions of radiative forcing and internal climate variability to the late 20th Century drying the Mediterranean region. Climate Dynamics, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1221-z .

Seager, R. and R. Burgman, 2011: Medieval hydroclimate revisited.  PAGES 19, 10-12.

Seager, R. and N. Naik, 2011: A mechanisms-based approach for detecting recent anthropogenic hydroclimate change. J. Climate, 25, 1, 236-261.

Seager, R., N. Naik and L. Vogel, 2011: Does global warming cause intensified interannual hydroclimate variability? J. Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00363.1.

Smerdon, J.E., A. Kaplan, E. Zorita, J.F. González-Rouco, and M.N. Evans, 2011: Spatial Performance of Four Climate Field Reconstruction Methods Targeting the Common Era, Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L11705, doi:10.1029/2011GL047372.

Solomon, A., L. Goddard, A. Kumar, J. Carton, C. Deser, I. Kukumori, A.M. Greene, G. Hegerl, B. Kirtman, Y. Kushnir, M. Newman, D. Smith, D. Vimont, T. Delworth, G.A. Meehl, T. Stockdale, 2011: Distinguishing the Roles of Natural and Anthropogenically Forced Decadal Climate Variability. Bull. Amer. Meteo. Soc. ,92, 141-156.

Ting, M., Y. Kushnir, R. Seager and C. Li, 2011: Robust Features of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Variability and its Climate Impacts. Geophys. Res. Lett., L17705, doi:10.1029/2011GL048712.

Wolff, C., G.H. Haug, A. Timmermann, J.S. Sinninghe Damste, A. Brauer, D.M. Sigman, M.A. Cane, D. Verschuren, 2011: Reduced inter-annual rainfall variability in East Africa during the last ice age. Science, 333, 6043 pp. 743-747, doi: 10.1126/science.1203724.


Kushnir, Y and M. Stein, 2010: North Atlantic influence on 19th-20th century rainfall in the Dead Sea watershed, teleconnections with the Sahel, and implication for Holocene climate fluctuations. Quaternary Science Reviews, 29, 3843-3860.

Wu, Y., M. Ting, R. Seager, M.A. Cane and H.-P. Huang, 2010: Changes in storm tracks and energy transports in a warmer climate simulated by the GFDL CM2.1 model. Climate Dynamics: DOI 10.1007/s00382-010-0776-4.