The GloDecH project continues our work on North American Drought Research developing a global approach to hydroclimate variability and change. Our drought research to date is: here
A summary of the GloDecH research is at the bottom of this page. Here we provide more detailed treatment of a few of our on going projects.
NOAA DROUGHT TASK FORCE ASSESSMENT REPORT: Causes and Predictability of the 2011 to 2014 California Drought
Summary of GloDecH project:
1. Using instrumental data, reanalyses, SST-forced and forced and free coupled GCMs, fully characterize for key regions (SWNA, MENAME, Southwest North America Mediterranean-North Africa-Middle East monsoon Asia) the mechanisms of natural variability of, and forced variations in, hydroclimate on the interannual to decadal (I/D) timescale.
2. Use this distinction to develop ‘dynamical early warming systems’ for forced hydroclimate change.
3. Use multicentury pre-I records (mostly trees) to characterize decadal to centennial (D/C) hydroclimate variability in these regions.
4. Assess ability of coupled GCMs to properly represent I/D and D/C hydro variability and mechanisms.
5. Develop new multi-proxy climate field reconstructions with multiple methods etc.
6. Develop new AGCM simulations for past centuries forced by coral-reconsructed SSTs.
7. Think about how to combine coupled and AGCM simulations and CFRs into best guess estimates of last millennium climate history.
8. Controlled GCM experiments and diagnostic modeling on sensitivity to CO2, O3, solar variations, SST variations.
9. Develop probabilistic predictions for key regions based on, but going beyond, AR5.