ABSTRACT FROM: Future of the Arctic Sea Ice Cover: Implications of an Antarctic Analog
Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 28, No. 2, Pages 307-310, January 15, 2001
Recent observations reveal a significant change in the upper ocean
characteristics of the eastern Arctic in 1995. The change is
manifested through the loss of a near-surface layer known as the cold
halocline layer (CHL). Without the CHL, the Arctic water column looks
and behaves like the Antarctic water column. The expected local
impact is the appearance of significant winter ocean heat fluxes
(15-20 W/m2) and reduction of winter ice growth by 70-80%
relative to years in which the CHL was present. Preliminary results
suggest a partial recovery of the CHL in the late 1990's, tracking the
weakening of the Arctic Oscillation.
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