The ability to discriminate between climate change and climate variability and to characterize uncertainty is of vital importance in future projections of precipitation in water-stressed regions like the subtropics. For this reason my research so far has focused on precipitation in the Mediterranean region. Water is the Earth’s most important resource and in places that are already water-stressed any predictability of future changes to water availability that can be ascertained is vital. In order to make reasonable predictions about what this region and others can expect in terms of future precipitation variability and change, and to then effectively communicate this information to decision-makers, it is very important to know what the impacts of global warming will be within the broader context of natural changes that occur on interdecadal timescales. The Mediterranean offers an important example of a region that is expected to feel the impacts of future drying, but the lessons learned in the Mediterranean can be applied to other regions as well. My research focus is to continue investigating the effects of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations on the Earth’s climate system, with an eye toward understanding the mechanisms responsible for the projected precipitation changes.