Extreme Weather and Climate

Schedule and Readings

9/8/14 Primer on Extreme Value Theory Statistics

Course logistics [pdf]
Guest Presenter: Harald Rieder (U Graz, Austria) [pdf]

Reading: Extreme Values, by A.C. Davison in Encyclopedia of Biostatistics 2nd edition, Vol 3, pp 1877-1882, edited by Peter Armitage & Theodore Colton, John Wiley & Sons Ltd., Chichester, 2005. [Available here to CU students, staff, and faculty]

Optional: Asymmetry of projected increases in extreme temperature distributions [Kodra & Ganguly]


9/15/14 Introduction and Overview

Presenter: Arlene [pdf]

IPCC 2012 Special Report on Extremes Ch1 pp 29-31 and 39-43; Ch3 pp 115-133 [ Full Report Available here ]

Optional: Attribution of Weather and Climate-Related Events, Chapter from Climate Science for Serving Society: Research Modeling and Prediction Priorities, G.R. Asrar and J.W. Hurrell (eds.), doi 10.1007/978-94-007-6692-1_12, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht, 2013 [Stott et al., 2013]


9/22/14 Temperature and heat waves, Part 1

Presenter: Olivia [pptx]

IPCC 2012 Special Report on Extremes Ch3 pp 133-141 [ Full Report Available here ]
The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves[Schar et al., Nature 2004]
Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003[Stott et al., Nature 2004]
Mega-heatwave temperatures due to combined soil desiccation and atmospheric heat accumulation[Miralles et al., Nature Geoscience 2014]

Optional: Hot news from summer 2003 [Schar and Jendritzky Nature News and Views 2004]
Optional: Autopsy of two mega-heatwaves [Fischer, Nature Geoscience News and Views 2014]
Optional: A review of the European Summer Heat Wave of 2003 [Garcia-Herrera et al. Critical Reviews in Environmental Science and Technology 2010]


9/29/14 Temperature and heat waves, Part 2

Presenter: Ken [pdf]

Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave? [Dole et al., Geophys. Res. Lett. 2011]
Increase of extreme events in a warming world [Rahmstorf and Coumou Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 2012]
Reconciling two approaches to attribution of the 2010 Russian heat wave [Otto et al., Geophys. Res. Lett. 2012]
Climate extremes and climate change: The Russian heat wave and other climate extremes of 2010 [Trenberth and Fasullo J. Geophys. Res. 2012]

Optional: Doubled length of western European summer heat waves since 1880 [Della-Marta et al. J. Geophys. Res. 2007]
Optional: European Seasonal and Annual Temperature Variability, Trends, and Extr emes Since 1500 [Luterbacher et al. Science 200 4]


10/6/14 Precipitation Extremes Part 1

Presenter: Ethan [pptx]

IPCC 2012 Special Report on Extremes Ch3 pp 141-149 [ Full Report Available here ]
Trends in Intense Precipitation in the Climate Record [Groisman et al., J. Climate 2005 ]



10/13/14 Precipitation Extremes Part 2

Presenter: Nora [pdf][ppt]

Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle [ Allen and Ingram, Nature 2002]
The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change [O'Gorman and Schneider PNAS 2009]

Optional: Scaling of Precipitation Extremes over a Wide Range of Climates Simulated with an Idealized GCM[O'Gorman and Schneider J. Climate 2009]
Optional: Sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes to climate change [ O'Gorman, Nat. Geosci. 2012]
Optional: Precipitation extreme changes exceeding moisture content increases in MIROC and IPCC climate models[Sugiyama et al., PNAS 2010]


10/20/14 Floods

Presenter: Colin [pptx]

IPCC 2012 Special Report on Extremes Ch3 pp 175-178 [ Full Report Available here ]
The role of upper-level dynamics and surface processes for the Pakistan flood of July 2010[Martius et al. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Met. Soc. 2012]
Floods in a changing climate: Does the past represent the future? [Jain and Lall Water Resources Research2001]

Optional:Anomalous Atmospheric Events Leading to the Summer 2010 Floods in Pakistan[Houze Jr. et al. BAMS 2011]
Optional: Roles of European blocking and tropical‐extratropical interaction in the 2010 Pakistan flooding[Hong et al. Geophys. Res. Lett 2011]


10/27/14 Drought Part 1

Presenter: Catherine [pptx]

IPCC 2012 Special Report on Extremes Ch3 pp 167-175 [ Full Report Available here ]
A global perspective on African climate[Giannini et al., Climatic Change 2008]


Optional: Little change in global drought over past 60 years[Sheffield et al., Nature 2012]
Optional: Global warming and changes in drought [Trenberth et al., Nature Climate Change 2014] Optional: Increasing drought under global warming in obs and models[Dai, Nature Climate Change 2013]
Optional: A scPDSI-based global data set of dry and wet spells for 1901–2009[van der Schrier et al., J. Geophys. Res. 2013]


11/10/14 Drought Part 2

Presenter: Sloan [pdf]

Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America[ Seager et al., Science 2007]
Amplification of the North American ‘‘Dust Bowl’’ drought through human-induced land degradation [ Cook et al., PNAS 2009]
Megadroughts in North America: placing IPCC projections of hydroclimatic change in a long-term palaeoclimate context[Cook et al., J. Quat. Sci. 2009]


11/17/14 Tropical Cyclones Part 1

Presenter: Usama [pptx]

Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment[ Webster et al., Science 2005]
Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years[ Emanuel et al., Nature 2005]
Hurricanes and global warming[Landsea comment on Emanuel paper, Science 2005]
Can we detect trends in extreme tropical cyclones?[ Landsea et al. Science 2006]

Optional: Climate and Tropical Cyclone Activity: A New Model Downscaling Approach [Emanuel., J. Clim. 2006]
Optional: Hurricanes: Tempests in a greenhouse [Emanuel Physics Today 2006]
Optional: Effect of remote sea surface temperature change on tropical cyclone potential intensity [Vecchi and Soden Nature 2007]


11/24/14 Tropical Cyclones Part 2

Presenter: Bor-Ting [pdf]

Tropical cyclones and climate change[ Knutson et al., Nat. Geosci. 2010]

Optional: Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes [ Bender et al., Science 2010]


12/1/14 Tornadoes

Presenter: Francis [pdf]

Does Global Warming Influence Tornado Activity?[ Diffenbaugh, N. S., R. J. Trapp, and H. Brooks EOS Trans. AGU, 89(53), 553-554, doi:10.1029/2008EO530001 2008]
Severe thunderstorms and climate change [ Brooks, H.E. Atmos. Res, 123, 129-138, doi:10.106/j.atmosres.2012.04.002. 2013]
Robust increases in severe thunderstorm environments in response to greenhouse forcing[Diffenbaugh, N. S., M. Scherer, and R. J. Trapp Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci.,100, 16 361–16 366, doi:10.1073/pnas.13077581102013]


12/8/14 Arctic amplification and mid-latitude weather

Presenter: Madeleine

Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in midlatitudes [ Francis and Vavrus, Geophys. Res. Lett.2012]
Revisiting the evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in midlatitudes [ Barnes, Geophys. Res. Lett.2013]
Global Warming and Winter Weather [ Wallace et al. letter to Science 2014]
Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather [ Cohen et al., Nature Geoscience 2014]

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