Work:

Lectures Tuesday and Thursday, 8:40-9:55, 517 Hamilton Hall.

There will be problem sets. These will involve "scientific insight" type questions, calculations exploring physical relationships, and the statistical manipulation of data.

Discussion section meets once per week. Discussion will focus on topics relevant to the problem sets.

The grade will be based on the two hourly exams (15%+15%), the problem sets (30%), and the final (40%).

Text: Natural Disasters, 8th edition by P. L. Abbott (available at Book Culture). The 7th edition is also fine.

Lecture notes and additional readings will be posted on the course web site.

Lecture Topics:

Week 1. What is risk? (1).

• Lecture 1 (1/22): Introduction. Risks in many different forms.
• Lecture 2 (1/24): Quantification of risk. The risk of dying. Chance and probability.
• Reading: Abbott, Chapter 1 (8th ed.); Chapter 1 (7th ed.).

• First discussion section. (Discussion section meets once per week.)
• Lecture 3 (1/29): Risk perception and adjusting to the risk. The value of life. Patterns of natural disaster losses.
• Lecture 4 (1/31): The phenomenology of tornados. Atmospheric stability.
• Reading: Probability and statistics handout. Abbott, Chapter 9 (8th ed.); Chapter 11 (7th ed.).

• Lecture 5 (2/5): Mitigation of tornado hazards.
• Lecture 6 (2/7): The phenomenology and effects of hurricanes.
• Reading: Abbott, Chapter 10 (8th ed.); Chapter 11 (7th ed.).

• Lecture 7 (2/12): Hurricane mechanics. The Coriolis effect.
• Lecture 8 (2/14): Hurricane prediction and hazard mitigation. Sandy I.
• Reading: Abbott, Chapter 11 (8th ed.); Chapter 13 (7th ed.).

• Lecture 9 (2/19): Plate tectonics. Phenomenology of earthquakes.
• Lecture 10 (2/21): Earthquake mechanics.
• Reading: Abbott, Chapters 2 and 3 (8th ed.); Chapter 2 and 4 (7th ed.).

• Lecture 11 (2/26): The effects of earthquakes. Mitigation of earthquake hazards.
• Lecture 12 (2/28): Planning for earthquakes. Prediction and problems of mitigation.
• Reading: Abbott, Chapters 4 and 5 (8th ed.); Chapter 3 and 6 (7th ed.).

• Lecture 13 (3/5): First Hourly Exam.
• Lecture 14 (3/7): Phenomenology of volcanos. Volcano hazards.
• Reading: Abbott, Chapter 6 (8th ed.); Chapter 8 (7th ed.).

• Lecture 15 (3/12): Volcano prediction and hazard mitigation.
• Lecture 16 (3/14): The hazard of impacts from space objects.
• Reading: Abbott, Chapter 7 and 16 (8th ed.); Chapters 9 and 17 (7th ed.).

• Lecture 17 (3/26): Exposure risks. Dose and response.
• Lecture 18 (3/28): Radon. Biological effects of radiation.
• Reading: Handout on exposure hazards.

• Lecture 19 (4/2): Exposure risks and radon epidemiology. Other exposures to radiation.
• Lecture 20 (4/4): Asbestos and related health effects.
• Reading: Handouts on radioactivity and radon.

• Lecture 21 (4/9): Exposure risks and asbestos. Arsenic and other exposure hazards.
• Lecture 22 (4/11): Flooding and the hydrology of watersheds. River flow and river flooding.
• Reading: Handout on asbestos. Abbott, Chapter 13 (8th ed.); Chapter 14 (7th ed.).

• Lecture 23 (4/16): Second Hourly Exam.
• Lecture 24 (4/18): Coastal processes and hazards.
• Reading: Abbott, Chapter 13 and 11 (8th ed.); Chapter 14 and 13 (7th ed.).

• Lecture 25 (4/23): Mitigation of flooding hazards.
• Lecture 26 (4/25): Coastal erosion and coastal development. Sandy II.
• Reading: Abbott, Chapter 11 (8th ed.); Chapter 13 (7th ed.).

• Lecture 27 (4/30): Global warming and sea-level change.
• Lecture 28 (5/2): How do we mitigate future risks when the future is far away? Conclusion.