Smerdon Group Publications


Publications can be accessed via the OCP Division of LDEO, the

Columbia University Academic Commons, or through the links below.

ResearcherID (F-9952-2011)

Google Scholar

*Indicates student author.

Books, Chapters and Reports

Masson-Delmotte, V., et al., (2013), Information from paleoclimate archives, In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, [Stocker, T.F. et al. (eds.)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Monteleoni, C., G.A. Schmidt, F. Alexander, A. Niculescu-Mizil, K. Steinhaeuser, M. Tippett, A. Banerjee, M.B. Blumenthal, A.R. Ganguly, J.E. Smerdon, and M. Tedesco, Climate Informatics, In Computational Intelligent Data Analysis for Sustainable Development; Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery Series. Yu, T., Chawla, N., and Simoff, S. (Eds.), CRC Press, 2013.

Smerdon, J.E., Student Companion to Climate Change: The Science of Global Warming and Our Energy Future by E.A. Mathez, Columbia University Press, New York, NY, 2009, pp. 277-309.

*Rook, A., *A. Powell and J.E. Smerdon, Initial Sustainability Report on Barnard College, 2007.

Manuscripts In Review

Esper, J., *L. Schneider, J.E. Smerdon, B. Schone, and U. Buntgen, Signals and memory in tree-ring width and density data, Dendrochronologia, in review.

Smerdon, J.E., *S. Coats, and T.R. Ault, Model-Dependent Spatial Skill in Pseudoproxy Experiments Testing Climate Field Reconstruction Methods for the Common Era, Climate Dynamics, in review.

*Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager, D. Griffin, and B.I. Cook, Winter-to-Summer Precipitation Phasing in Southwestern North America: A Multi-century perspective from Paleoclimatic Model-Data Comparisons, Jounal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, in review.

*Schneider, L., J.E. Smerdon, U. Buntgen, R.J.S. Wilson, V.S. Myglan, A.V. Kirdyanov, and J. Esper, Revising Northern Hemisphere temperature history back to AD 600, Geophysical Research Letters, in review.

*Pretis, F., *L. Schneider, and J.E. Smerdon, Detection of Designed Break Functions with an Application to Volcanic Impacts on Hemispheric Surface Temperatures, Annals of Applied Statistics, in review.


52. Beltrami, H., G. Matharoo and J.E. Smerdon, Ground warming and continental energy storage in the Northern Hemisphere: Impact of borehole depth, Journal of Geophysical Research - Earth Surface, in press.

51. Cook, B.I., T.R. Ault, and J.E. Smerdon (2015), Unprecedented 21st-Century Drought Risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains, Science Advances, 1, e1400082. [EI Press Release] [NASA Press Release] [Science] [Nature | News] [US News & World Report] [CBS News] [LA Times] [NY Times] [Irish Times] [International Business Times] [Japan Times] [Slate] [Salon] [PBS] [Scientific American] [The Guardian] [Al Jazeera] [National Geographic] [The Conversation] [NPR's Science Friday] [BBC]

50. Smerdon, J.E, B.I. Cook, E.R. Cook, and R. Seager (2015), Bridging Past and Future Climate Across Paleoclimatic Reconstructions, Observations, and Models: A Hydroclimate Case Study, Journal of Climate, in press.

49. Beltrami, H., G. Matharoo and J.E. Smerdon (2015), Ground surface temperature and continental heat gain in a warming climate: Uncertainties from underground, Environmental Research Letters, 10, 014009, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014009.

48. *Coats, S., B.I. Cook, J.E. Smerdon, and R. Seager (2015), North American Pan-Continental Droughts in Model Simulations of the Last Millennium, Journal of Climate, 28, 2025-2043.

47. *Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, B.I. Cook and R. Seager (2015), Are Simulated Megadroughts in the North American Southwest Forced?, Journal of Climate, 28, 124–142. doi:


46. Evans, M.N., J.E. Smerdon, A. Kaplan, S.E. Tolwinski-Ward, and J.F. Gonzalez-Rouco (2014), Climate field reconstruction uncertainty arising from multivariate and nonlinear properties of predictors, Geophysical Research Letters, 41, doi:10.1002/2014GL062063.

45. Cook, B.I., R. Seager, and J.E. Smerdon (2014), The Worst North American Drought Year of the Last Millennium: 1934, Geophysical Research Letters, 41, doi:10.1002/2014GL061661.

44. PAGES 2k Consortium (Primary Authors: K. Anchukaitis, U. Büentgen, J. Emile-Geay, M. N. Evans, H. Goosse, D. Kaufman, J. Luterbacher, J. Smerdon, M. Tingley, L. von Gunten) (2014), A Community-Driven Framework for Climate Reconstructions, Eos Trans. AGU, 95(40), 361.

43. Beltrami, H., G.S. Matharoo, L. Tarasov, V. Rath and J.E. Smerdon (2014), Numerical Studies on the Impact of the Last Glacial Cycle on recent borehole temperature profiles: impications for terrestrial energy balance, Climate of the Past, 10, 1693-1706, doi:10.5194/cp-10-1693-2014.

42. Wahl, E.R., H.F. Diaz, J.E. Smerdon and C. M. Ammann (2014), Late Winter Temperature Response to Large Tropical Volcanic Eruptions in Temperate Western North America: Relationship to ENSO Phases, Global and Planetary Change, 122, 238-250, doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.08.005

41. *Ballard, T., R. Seager, J.E. Smerdon, B.I. Cook, A.J. Ray, B. Rajagopalan, Y. Kushnir, J. Nakamura, N. Henderson (2014), Hydroclimate Variability and Change in the Prairie Pothole Region, the “Duck Factory” of North America, Earth Interactions, 18, 1-28, doi:

40. Cook, B.I., J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager, and *S. Coats (2014), Global warming and 21st century drying, Climate Dynamics, 43:2607-2627, DOI 10.1007/s00382-014-2075-y. [Supplementary Website] [EI Press Release] [CBS News] [The Weather Channel] [The Huffington Post] [Think Progress] [Altmetric]

39. Cook, B.I., J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager and E.R. Cook (2014), Pan-continental droughts in North America over the last millennium, Journal of Climate, 27, 383-397, doi: [Nature News & Views]

38. *Wang, J., J. Emile-Geay, D. Guillot, J.E. Smerdon, and  B. Rajaratnam (2014), Evaluating climate field reconstruction techniques using improved emulations of real-world conditions, Climate of the Past, 10, 1-19, doi:10.5194/cp-10-1-2014.


37. *Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, B.I. Cook and R. Seager (2013), Stationarity of the Tropical Pacific Teleconnection to North America in CMIP5/PMIP3 Model Simulations, Geophysical Research Letters, 40, doil:10.1002/grl.50938.

36. *Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager, B.I. Cook and J.F. González-Rouco (2013), Megadroughts in Southwest North America in Millennium-Length ECHO-G Simulations and their Comparison to Proxy Drought Reconstructions, Journal of Climate, 26, 7635-7649, doi: [Nature News] [Scientific American Blog]

35. PAGES 2k Consortium (2013), Continental-scale temperature variability over the last two millennia, Nature Geoscience, 6, 339-346, doi:10.1038/ngeo1797. [PAGES FAQ] [EI Press Release] [NYTs Dot Earth Blog] [NOAA News] [US News]

34. Smerdon, J.E., A. Kaplan and *D.E. Amrhein (2013), Reply to comment by Rutherford et al. on "Erroneous Model Field Representations in Multiple Pseudoproxy Studies: Corrections and Implications", Journal of Climate, 26, 3485–3486. [Supplementary Website] [Rutherford et al. Comment]

33. Tierney, J.E., J.E. Smerdon, K.J. Anchukaitis, and R. Seager (2013), Multidecadal variability in East African hydroclimate controlled by the Indian Ocean, Nature, 493, 389-392. [WHOI Press Release]

32. Werner, J.P., J. Luterbacher, and J.E. Smerdon (2013), A Pseudoproxy Evaluation of Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling and Canonical Correlation Analysis for Climate Field Reconstructions over Europe, Journal of Climate, 26(3), 851-867.


31. Karnauskas, K.B., J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager, and J.F. González-Rouco (2012), A Pacific centennial oscillation predicted by coupled GCMs, Journal of Climate, 25, 5943-5961.

30. Li, B., and J.E. Smerdon (2012), Defining spatial assessment metrics for evaluation of paleoclimatic field reconstructions of the Common Era, Environmetrics, 23(5), 394-406.

29. Wahl, E.R., and J.E. Smerdon (2012), Comparative performance of paleoclimatic field and index reconstructions derived from climate proxies and noise-only predictors, Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L06703, doi:10.1029/2012GL051086. [Auxiliary Material] [Supplementary Website] Please see the small but important correction published for this manuscript.

28. Smerdon, J.E. (2012), Climate models as a test bed for climate reconstruction methods: pseudoproxy experiments, WIREs Climate Change, 3:63-77, doi:10.1002/wcc.149.


27. Beltrami, H., J.E. Smerdon, G. Matharoo, and *N. Nickerson (2011), Impact of maximum borehole depths on inverted temperature histories in borehole paleoclimatology, Climate of the Past, 7, 745-756, doi:10.5194/cp-7-745-2011.

26. Smerdon, J.E., A. Kaplan, E. Zorita, J.F. González-Rouco, and M.N. Evans (2011), Spatial performance of four climate field reconstruction methods targeting the Common Era, Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L11705, doi:10.1029/2011GL047372. [Auxiliary Materials] [Supplementary Website] [Research Blog Post]

25. D’Arrigo, R., R. Seager, J.E. Smerdon, A.N. LeGrande, and E.R. Cook (2011), The anomalous winter of 1783-1784: Was the Laki eruption or an analog of the 2009-2010 winter to blame?, Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L05706, doi:10.1029/2011GL046696. [Auxiliary Materials] [Research Blog Post] [AGU Research Spotlight (pdf)] [GRL Editor’s Highlight] [EI Blog Post] [Our Amazing Planet Post] [NOAA/OAR Hot Item]

24. Smerdon, J.E. (2011), Discussion of: A Statistical Analysis of Multiple Temperature Proxies: Are Reconstructions of Surface Temperatures Over the Last 1000 Years Reliable?, Annals of Applied Statistics, 5(1), 76-79. [Complete AOAS Issue] [Supplementary Materials] [Discussion Wordle] [Research Blog Post]


23. *Lesperance, M., J.E. Smerdon and H. Beltrami (2010), Propagation of linear surface air temperature trends into the terrestrial subsurface, Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 115, D21115, doi:10.1029/2010JD014377. [Abstract Wordle]

22. Smerdon, J.E., A. Kaplan, and *D.E. Amrhein (2010), Erroneous Model Field Representations in Multiple Pseudoproxy Studies: Corrections and Implications, Journal of Climate, 23, 5548-5554 doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI3742.1. [Supplementary Website] [Abstract Wordle]

21. Smerdon, J.E., A. Kaplan, *D. Chang, and M.N. Evans (2011), A Pseudoproxy Evaluation of the CCA and RegEM Methods for Reconstructing Climate Fields of the Last Millennium, Journal of Climate, 24, 1284-1309, doi: 10.1175/2010JCLI4110.1. [Supplementary Website] [Abstract Wordle] Please note that the above linked article was subject to a corrigendum because of a production error at the publisher.  The original 2010 article is available online here.


20. Smerdon, J.E., H. Beltrami, *C. Creelman, and *M.B. Stevens (2009), Characterizing land-surface processes: A quantitative analysis using air-ground thermal orbits, Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 114, D15102, doi:10.1029/2009JD011768. [Abstract Wordle]


19. Smerdon, J.E., A. Kaplan, and *D. Chang (2008), On the Origin of the Standardization Sensitivity in RegEM Climate Field Reconstructions, Journal of Climate, 21(24), 6710-6723. [Abstract Wordle]

18. D'Arrigo, R., R. Allan, R. Wilson, J. Palmer, J. Sakulich, J.E. Smerdon, S. Bijaksana and L. Ode Ngkoimani (2008), Pacific and Indian Ocean climate signals in a tree-ring record of Java monsoon drought, International Journal of Climatology, 28: 1889-1901, doi:10.1002/joc.1679. [Abstract Wordle]

17. Smerdon, J.E., J.F. González-Rouco, and E. Zorita (2008), Comment on "Robustness of proxy-based climate field reconstruction methods" by Michael E. Mann et al., Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 113, D18106, doi:10.1029/2007JD009542. [Rutherford et al. Reply] [Comment Wordle]

16. D'Arrigo, R., and J.E. Smerdon (2008), Tropical climate influences on drought variability over Java, Indonesia, Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L05707, doi:10.1029/2007GL032589. [Supplementary Materials] [Abstract Wordle]


15. Smerdon, J.E., and A. Kaplan (2007), Comment on "Testing the fidelity of methods used in proxy-based reconstructions of past climate": The role of the standardization interval, Journal of Climate, 20(22), 5666-5670. [Supplementary Website] [Mann et al. Reply] [Comment Wordle]

14. Hegerl, G. C., T.J. Crowley, M. Allen, W.T. Hyde, H.N. Pollack, J. Smerdon, and E. Zorita (2007), Detection of Human Influence on a New, Validated 1500-Year Temperature Reconstruction, Journal of Climate, 20(4), 650-666. [Abstract Wordle]

13. *Stevens, M.B., J.E. Smerdon, J.F. González-Rouco, M. Stieglitz, and H. Beltrami (2007), Effects of bottom boundary placement on subsurface heat storage: Implications for climate model simulations, Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L02702, doi:10.1029/2006GL028546. [Abstract Wordle]

12. Stieglitz, M. and J.E. Smerdon (2007), Characterizing Land-Atmosphere Coupling and the Implications for Subsurface Thermodynamics, Journal of Climate, 20(1), 21-37. [Abstract Wordle]


11. Smerdon, J.E. and M. Stieglitz (2006), Simulating heat transport of harmonic temperature signals in the Earth's shallow subsurface: Lower-boundary sensitivities, Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L14402, doi:10.1029/2006GL026816. [Abstract Wordle]

10. Smerdon, J.E., H.N. Pollack, V. Cermak, J. W. Enz, M. Kresl, J. Safanda, and J.F. Wehmiller (2006), Daily, seasonal and annual relationships between air and subsurface temperatures, Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 111, D07101, doi:10.1029/2004JD005578. [Abstract Wordle]

9. Pollack, H.N., S. Huang, and J.E. Smerdon (2006), Five centuries of climate change in Australia: The view from underground, Journal of Quaternary Science, 21(7), 701-706. [Abstract Wordle]


8. Pollack, H.N., J.E. Smerdon, and P.E. van Keken (2005), Variable seasonal coupling between air and ground temperatures: A simple representation in terms of subsurface thermal diffusivity, Geophysical Research Letters, 32, L15405, doi:10.1029/2005GL023869.


7. Smerdon, J.E., H.N. Pollack, V. Cermak, J. W. Enz, M. Kresl, J. Safanda, and J.F. Wehmiller (2004), Air-ground temperature coupling and subsurface propagation of annual temperature signals, Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 109, D21107, doi:10.1029/2004JD005056.

6. Pollack, H. N., and J.E. Smerdon (2004), Borehole climate reconstructions: Spatial structure and hemispheric averages, Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 109, D11106, doi:10.1029/2003JD004163. [Rutherford and Mann Correction]


5. Smerdon, J.E., H. N. Pollack, J. W. Enz, and M. J. Lewis (2003), Conduction-dominated heat transport of the annual temperature signal in soil, Journal of Geophysical Research - Solid Earth, 108(B9), 2431, doi:10.1029/2002JB002351.

4. Pollack, H.N., D.Y. Demezhko, A.D. Duchkov, I.V. Golovanova, S. Huang, V.A. Shchapov, and J.E. Smerdon (2003), Surface temperature trends in Russia over the past five centuries reconstructed from borehole temperatures, Journal of Geophysical Research - Solid Earth, 108(B4), 2180, doi:10.1029/2002JB002154.

3. England, A.W., X. Lin, J.E. Smerdon, and H.N. Pollack (2003), The Influence of Soil Moisture Upon the Geothermal Climate Signal, IGARSS Proceedings, IEEE International, 1, 419-421, doi:10.1109/IGARSS.2003.1293795'.

2. Lin, X., J.E. Smerdon, A.W. England, and H.N. Pollack (2003), A model study of the effects of climatic precipitation changes on ground temperatures, Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 108(D7), doi:10.1029/2002JD002878.


1. Beltrami, H., J.E. Smerdon, H.N. Pollack, and S. Huang (2002), Continental heat gain in the global climate system, Geophysical Research Letters, 29(8), doi:10.1029/2001GL014310 (Chosen as a GRL Editor's Highlight).

Can't get enough of the Wordle? Here are a few more from yours truly.

© J.E. Smerdon