A Pseudoproxy Review

 

A Pseudoproxy Review

Sunday, January 22, 2012

 

My review of pseudoproxy experiments and their implications for hemispheric and global temperature reconstructions has been published at WIRES Climate Change.  The abstract is included below, but it is worth taking this occasion to make a few general points.  First and foremost, the new(ish) WIRES Climate Change journal appears to be off to a good start and they have already published some interesting and useful pieces.  I found both the publication process and the interactions with the editors and staff to be very positive.  It seems a worthy publication for both interested authors and readers. 


On the content of my specific review, I simply want to note that the scientific history of the attempts to reconstruct the climate of the Common Era involves many scientists who have advanced a barrage of arguments and counterarguments over multiple decades.  In some popularized versions of this history, people often point to some of the more visible debates involving a few conspicuous participants who typically are connected to one blog or another.  One cannot review the science, however, without noting that there has been a tremendous amount of healthy scientific inquiry into the validity of the proxy signals and the methods that are used to combine them into large-scale climate reconstructions.  I review only a small part of that story in my manuscript, namely the methodological work that has been done within pseudoproxy contexts (methodological investigations of course need not be confined to pseudoproxy frameworks).  But even this part of the history is testimony to the many participants in the debate, the ongoing work to describe and constrain uncertainties, and the interest in ultimately producing robust reconstructions that are properly interpreted.  Thus, contrary to those who would argue that our community is homogenous in its defense of one specific result or viewpoint, the detailed scientific history reveals a healthy debate driven by many different views and arguments.  The pseudoproxy literature is just one example.


Climate models as a test bed for climate reconstruction methods: pseudoproxy experiments


  1. J.E. Smerdon

WIRES Climate Change


Abstract: Millennium-length, forced transient simulations with fully coupled general circulation models have become important new tools for addressing uncertainties in global and hemispheric temperature reconstructions targeting the Common Era (the last two millennia). These model simulations are used as test beds on which to evaluate the performance of paleoclimate reconstruction methods using controlled and systematic investigations known as pseudoproxy experiments (PPEs). Such experiments are motivated by the fact that any given real-world reconstruction is the product of multiple uncontrolled factors, making it difficult to isolate the impact of one factor in reconstruction assessments and comparisons. PPEs have established a common experimental framework that can be systematically altered and evaluated, and thus test reconstruction methods and their dependencies. Although the translation of PPE results into real-world implications must be done cautiously, their experimental design attributes allow researchers to test reconstruction techniques beyond what was previously possible with real-world data alone. This review summarizes the development of PPEs and their findings over the last decade. The state of the science and its implications for global and hemispheric temperature reconstructions is also reviewed, as well as near-term design improvements that will expand the utility of PPEs.

 
 
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