The earthquake on May 10, 1997 followed on the heals of three severe earthquakes earlier in the year. Two earthquakes struck the northern end of the Khorasan Province. 80 lives were lost between the 6.1 and 5.4 magnitude quakes . And then, at the end of February, a magnitude 6.1 earthquake occured near the town of Ardebil in the northwestern corner of Iran close to the Caspian sea. These three events prove that large magnitudes are not required to have a large impact. A magnitude 7 earthquake releases roughly thirty times the energy of a magnitude 6 earthquake. Had the magnitude 7.3 event occured in either of these areas, the impact would have been truly catastrophic. This was the case on June 21, 1990 when earthquakes of magnitude 7.7 and 7.3 struck the northwestern provinces of Gilan and Zanjan near the Caspian Sea. Between 35,000 and 40,000 people perished and half a million were left homeless. This was among the most devastating earthquake events to occur during the 20th century.

The last major earthquake to occur on the Korizan fault occured in 1979. The May 10 quake was a reactivation of the 1979 fault zone.

Risk in Tehran
Iran is surrounded by tectonically active zones. Earthquakes are regularly felt on all sides of Iran. But the capital, Tehran, has been fortunate enough to avoid a major quake this century. According to Bahram Akasheh at Tehran University's Institute of Geophysics, Every day the danger from an earthquake is getting bigger and bigger as more people come from rural areas to the city. Every day I see new houses and new high-rise buildings going up in the direction of the mountains. Who gives the permission to build such high-rises, exactly on the fractured zone?" Tehran was shaken in 1830 by a magnitude 7.2 quake.

Akasheh has spoken to the president but says few people are willing to heed his warning. More than 100,000 people have been killed in Iran by earthquakes in the last 30 years. Then-president Rafsanjani cited that the most recent quake and the 1990 quake in northeast Iran were the two lowest points in his presidency. But Iran has had a string of national issues which have diverted people's attention. The 1979 revolution, the hostage crisis with the US shortly thereafter and a war with Iraq which lasted nearly a decade. With these significant challenges to the nation, earthquake precautions are not at the top of the political agenda. A casual poll in Tehran supports this.

"I am not afraid at all, because I do not believe it," said Sadege Semei, a 52-year old publisher.

"I can't do anything and I don't want to think about it. Where can I go? I live here,'" said 29- year old accountant Amiri Farhad. "My job is here, and I think when your time has come, you leave the world, and you can't do anything about it."

In 1990, a new building code went into effect in Tehran. Stringent seismic standards were set in place. However, almost all the buildings constructed before 1990, including countless places of historic and religious significance are severely inadequate.

Akasheh has formally suggested that the capital of Iran be moved to a more interior location such as the city of Isfahan. While Akasheh realizes this will not likely happen, he has urged the government to draw up contingency plans and at least think about how political stability could be maintained in the event of a large quake.

"Our forecast is that one day, we will have no more Tehran", he said.

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Last update: October 1, 1998