Measuring the potential utility of seasonal climate predictions

Publication Status is "Submitted" Or "In Press: 
LDEO Publication: 
Publication Type: 
Year of Publication: 
2004
Editor: 
Journal Title: 
Geophysical Research Letters
Journal Date: 
Nov 16
Place Published: 
Tertiary Title: 
Volume: 
31
Issue: 
22
Pages: 
-
Section / Start page: 
Publisher: 
ISBN Number: 
0094-8276
ISSN Number: 
Edition: 
Short Title: 
Accession Number: 
ISI:000225399600006
LDEO Publication Number: 
Call Number: 
Abstract: 

Variation of sea surface temperature (SST) on seasonal-to-interannual time-scales leads to changes in seasonal weather statistics and seasonal climate anomalies. Relative entropy, an information theory measure of utility, is used to quantify the impact of SST variations on seasonal precipitation compared to natural variability. An ensemble of general circulation model (GCM) simulations is used to estimate this quantity in three regions where tropical SST has a large impact on precipitation: South Florida, the Nordeste of Brazil and Kenya. We find the yearly variation of relative entropy is strongly correlated with shifts in ensemble mean precipitation and weakly correlated with ensemble variance. Relative entropy is also found to be related to measures of the ability of the GCM to reproduce observations.

Notes: 

875DJTimes Cited:6Cited References Count:16

DOI: 
Doi 10.1029/2004gl021575