A multivariate frequency-domain approach to long-lead climatic forecasting

Publication Status is "Submitted" Or "In Press: 
LDEO Publication: 
Publication Type: 
Year of Publication: 
1998
Editor: 
Journal Title: 
Weather and Forecasting
Journal Date: 
Mar
Place Published: 
Tertiary Title: 
Volume: 
13
Issue: 
1
Pages: 
58-74
Section / Start page: 
Publisher: 
ISBN Number: 
0882-8156
ISSN Number: 
Edition: 
Short Title: 
Accession Number: 
ISI:000072917800004
LDEO Publication Number: 
Call Number: 
Abstract: 

Guided by the increasing awareness and detectability of spatiotemporally organized climatic variability at interannual and longer timescales, the authors motivate the paradigm of a climate system that exhibits excitations of quasi-oscillatory eigenmodes with characteristic timescales and large-scale spatial patterns of coherence. It is assumed that any such modes are superposed on a spatially and temporally autocorrelated stochastic noise background. Under such a paradigm, a previously described (Mann and Park) multivariate frequency-domain approach is promoted as a particularly effective means of spatiotemporal signal identification and reconstruction, and an associated forecasting methodology is introduced. This combined signal detection/forecasting scheme exhibits significantly greater skill than conventional forecasting approaches in the context of a synthetic example consistent with the adopted paradigm. The example application demonstrates statistically significant skill at 5-10-yr lead times. Applications to operational long-range climatic forecasting are motivated and discussed.

Notes: 

Zf645Times Cited:10Cited References Count:34

DOI: