Statistical-dynamical seasonal forecasts of central-southwest Asian winter precipitation

Publication Status is "Submitted" Or "In Press: 
LDEO Publication: 
Publication Type: 
Year of Publication: 
2005
Editor: 
Journal Title: 
Journal of Climate
Journal Date: 
Jun 1
Place Published: 
Tertiary Title: 
Volume: 
18
Issue: 
11
Pages: 
1831-1843
Section / Start page: 
Publisher: 
ISBN Number: 
0894-8755
ISSN Number: 
Edition: 
Short Title: 
Accession Number: 
ISI:000229970500012
LDEO Publication Number: 
Call Number: 
Abstract: 

Interannual precipitation variability in central-southwest (CSW) Asia has been associated with East Asian jet stream variability and western Pacific tropical convection. However, atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST) poorly simulate the region's interannual precipitation variability. The statistical-dynamical approach uses statistical methods to correct systematic deficiencies in the response of AGCMs to SST forcing. Statistical correction methods linking model-simulated Indo-west Pacific precipitation and observed CSW Asia precipitation result in modest, but statistically significant, cross-validated simulation skill in the northeast part of the domain for the period from 1951 to 1998. The statistical-dynamical method is also applied to recent (winter 1998/99 to 2002/03) multimodel, two-tier December-March precipitation forecasts initiated in October. This period includes 4 yr (winter of 1998/99 to 2001/02) of severe drought. Tercile probability forecasts are produced using ensemble-mean forecasts and forecast error estimates. The statistical-dynamical forecasts show enhanced probability of below-normal precipitation for the four drought years and capture the return to normal conditions in part of the region during the winter of 2002/03.

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937ZUTimes Cited:8Cited References Count:41

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