Abrupt climate change

Publication Status is "Submitted" Or "In Press: 
LDEO Publication: 
Publication Type: 
Year of Publication: 
2003
Editor: 
Journal Title: 
Science
Journal Date: 
Mar 28
Place Published: 
Tertiary Title: 
Volume: 
299
Issue: 
5615
Pages: 
2005-2010
Section / Start page: 
Publisher: 
ISBN Number: 
0036-8075
ISSN Number: 
Edition: 
Short Title: 
Accession Number: 
ISI:000181834200034
LDEO Publication Number: 
Call Number: 
Abstract: 

Large, abrupt, and widespread climate changes with major impacts have occurred repeatedly in the past, when the Earth system was forced across thresholds. Although abrupt climate changes can occur for many reasons, it is conceivable that human forcing of climate change is increasing the probability of large, abrupt events. Were such an event to recur, the economic and ecological impacts could be large and potentially serious. Unpredictability exhibited near climate thresholds in simple models shows that some uncertainty will always be associated with projections. In light of these uncertainties, policy-makers should consider expanding research into abrupt climate change, improving monitoring systems, and taking actions designed to enhance the adaptability and resilience of ecosystems and economies.

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