Detection and attribution of recent climate change: A status report

Publication Status is "Submitted" Or "In Press: 
LDEO Publication: 
Publication Type: 
Year of Publication: 
1999
Editor: 
Journal Title: 
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Journal Date: 
Dec
Place Published: 
Tertiary Title: 
Volume: 
80
Issue: 
12
Pages: 
2631-2659
Section / Start page: 
Publisher: 
ISBN Number: 
0003-0007
ISSN Number: 
Edition: 
Short Title: 
Accession Number: 
ISI:000084016500003
LDEO Publication Number: 
Call Number: 
Abstract: 

This paper addresses the question of where we now stand with respect to detection and attribution of an anthropogenic climate signal. Our ability to estimate natural climate variability, against which claims of anthropogenic signal detection must be made, is reviewed. The current situation suggests control runs of global climate models may give the best estimates of natural variability on a global basis, estimates that appear to be accurate to within a factor of 2 or 3 at multidecadal timescales used in detection work.Present uncertainties in both observations and model-simulated anthropogenic signals in near-surface air temperature are estimated. The uncertainty in model simulated signals is, in places, as large as the signal to be detected. Two different, but complementary, approaches to detection and attribution are discussed in the context of these uncertainties.

Notes: 

261PATimes Cited:78Cited References Count:68

DOI: