A dynamically motivated statistical forecasting scheme for eastern Mediterranean winter rainfall is presented. The scheme is based on North Atlantic sea level pressure precursors. The resulting forecasts are robust and statistically significant at similar to 13 months lead time, and improve at similar to7 months lead. It is suggested that these Forecasts form a foundation for an operational early-warning system for eastern Mediterranean droughts.
367AYTimes Cited:12Cited References Count:39