A local forecast of land surface wetness conditions derived from seasonal climate predictions

Publication Status is "Submitted" Or "In Press: 
LDEO Publication: 
Publication Type: 
Year of Publication: 
2003
Editor: 
Journal Title: 
Journal of Hydrometeorology
Journal Date: 
Jun
Place Published: 
Tertiary Title: 
Volume: 
4
Issue: 
3
Pages: 
611-626
Section / Start page: 
Publisher: 
ISBN Number: 
1525-755X
ISSN Number: 
Edition: 
Short Title: 
Accession Number: 
ISI:000183227300010
LDEO Publication Number: 
Call Number: 
Abstract: 

An ensemble local hydrologic forecast derived from the seasonal forecasts of the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) is presented. Three-month seasonal forecasts were used to resample historical meteorological conditions and generate ensemble forcing datasets for a TOPMODEL-based hydrology model. Eleven retrospective forecasts were run at Florida and New York sites. Forecast skill was assessed for mean area modeled water table depth (WTD) and compared with WTD simulated with observed data. Hydrology model forecast skill was evident at the Florida site. Persistence of initial hydrologic conditions and local skill of the IRI seasonal forecast contributed to this local hydrologic forecast skill. At the New York site, there was no persistence of initial hydrologic conditions and local skill of the IRI seasonal forecast was poor; these factors precluded local hydrologic forecast skill at this site.

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684VMTimes Cited:7Cited References Count:44

DOI: