
         Old log file opened:               pcregOSX_log.txt                        
         Intermediate output files will not be saved

         Title: test                                                             

         The predictor data file:           Kauri_mod_200ptr.txt                    
         No casewise coordinates read in:             0
         Casewise coordinates format:                 None

         Casewise dataset   1:
         Data title:
           Year  SsfStb                                                        

         Data type:                         Casewise data
         Data format:                       (6x,f8.3)                               
         First year:                        1857
         Number of cases:                    147
         Number of variables:                  1

         Autoregressive modeling of predictors:

         Time period used to estimate autoregression: 1857 - 2003

         Series   Order   RSQ     AIC    Autoregressive Coeffs: Order AR(1)-AR(ip)
            1       3   0.070  -599.69   0.127  0.175 -0.181

         Lag mask applied to data:          54321012345
                                       Var  -----0+++++
                                         1  00000100000

         Total number of new variables created:     1
         First year: 1857     Last year: 2003     N years:   147

         The predictand data file:          Kaplan_DJF_act.txt                      
         No casewise coordinates read in:             0
         Casewise coordinates format:                 None

         Casewise dataset   1:
         Data title:
          year   Nino34                                                        

         Data type:                         Casewise data
         Data format:                       (5x,f9.3)                               
         First year:                        1857
         Number of cases:                    147
         Number of variables:                  1

         Autoregressive modeling of predictands:

         Time period used to estimate autoregression: 1857 - 2003

         Series   Order   RSQ     AIC    Autoregressive Coeffs: Order AR(1)-AR(ip)
            1       2   0.051   -23.61   0.024 -0.225


         Predictor-Predictand common period: 1857 - 2003    147 years

         For the calibration period:
              First year:                   1900
              Last year:                    2003
              Total years:                   104

         Point-by-Point Regression option chosen

         Criteria for screening predictors:

         Probability level for screening correlations:    0.0500
         Number of tails for testing correlations:         2
         Eigenvector selection criterion:                  Eigenvalue-1
         Regression model selection criterion:             minimum AIC


         Predictand     1

         Predictor    1 pass:  r = 0.383*  t =  4.19  pct = 0.000  lag t 0 SsfStb        

            1 Predictors passed for predictand     1

         Only 1 predictor passed for predictand      1  --  no pca is performed
1
                                  Regression Model Results

         Step  Eigen  Corr  t-stat   Prob   RSQ  Cum RSQ  Adj RSQ  Adj RE    AIC

           1     1   0.383   4.189*0.0001*0.147   0.147   0.138*   0.130   -12.39*

         Best order model using minimum AIC criterion:  1
         Percent variance explained:  14.68 %
         Full model f-ratio:   17.55   prob: .00010     1 and  102 df

                        Mean     Std Dev     Skew     Kurtosis     Serial r

         Actual       0.0682      0.9330   0.2038      2.6168      -0.0832
         Estimate     0.1963      0.3575  -0.0192      2.6668       0.0285
         Residual     0.0000      0.8618   0.0931      2.5913      -0.0923

         Durbin-Watson Stat =    2.1567     degrees-of-freedom =  1  and 104

         Positive Residuals =  50                Negative Residuals =  54
         Expected number of runs =     52.92     Actual number of runs =  53
         Too few runs z-score =        0.114     prob =  0.45467
         Too many runs z-score =      -0.084     prob =  0.46673

         Actual vs. Estimates correlation =       0.3831
         Estimates vs. Residuals correlation =    0.0000
         Actual vs. Residuals correlation =       0.9237

         The verification period is: 1857 - 1899

         Verification will be performed on   1 calibrated models


                       *** Reconstructions before autoregression added in ***


                          Calibration Period Results On Undifferenced Data

           Pearson      Robust      Spearman         RE and CE Statistics         Xprod Mean
         -----------  -----------  -----------  -------------------------------  ------------
    Var   Corr   Pct   Corr   Pct   Corr   Pct     RE      CE    MedRE   MedCE    tstat   Pct
      1  0.383 0.000  0.376 0.000  0.338 0.000   0.147   0.147   0.142   0.132    2.929 0.002

                         Calibration Period Results On 1st-differenced Data

           Pearson      Robust      Spearman         RE and CE Statistics         Xprod Mean
         -----------  -----------  -----------  -------------------------------  ------------
    Var   Corr   Pct   Corr   Pct   Corr   Pct     RE      CE    MedRE   MedCE    tstat   Pct
      1  0.374 0.000  0.359 0.000  0.361 0.000   0.140   0.140   0.139   0.132    4.507 0.000

                          Verification Period Results On Undifferenced Data

           Pearson      Robust      Spearman         RE and CE Statistics         Xprod Mean
         -----------  -----------  -----------  -------------------------------  ------------
    Var   Corr   Pct   Corr   Pct   Corr   Pct     RE      CE    MedRE   MedCE    tstat   Pct
      1  0.225 0.071  0.213 0.083  0.159 0.155   0.039  -0.042   0.044  -0.061    2.467 0.009

                         Verification Period Results On 1st-differenced Data

           Pearson      Robust      Spearman         RE and CE Statistics         Xprod Mean
         -----------  -----------  -----------  -------------------------------  ------------
    Var   Corr   Pct   Corr   Pct   Corr   Pct     RE      CE    MedRE   MedCE    tstat   Pct
      1  0.415 0.003  0.408 0.004  0.390 0.005   0.169   0.169   0.174   0.148    2.875 0.003


         Final prewhitening of reconstructions prior to adding persistence

         Series   Order   RSQ     AIC    Autoregressive Coeffs: Order AR(1)-AR(ip)
            1       0   0.000  -309.82


                         *** Reconstructions With Autoregression Added In ***


                           Calibration Period Results On Undifferenced Data

           Pearson      Robust      Spearman         RE and CE Statistics         Xprod Mean
         -----------  -----------  -----------  -------------------------------  ------------
    Var   Corr   Pct   Corr   Pct   Corr   Pct     RE      CE    MedRE   MedCE    tstat   Pct
      1  0.413 0.000  0.417 0.000  0.361 0.000   0.169   0.169   0.166   0.163    3.294 0.001

                          Calibration Period Results On 1st-differenced Data

           Pearson      Robust      Spearman         RE and CE Statistics         Xprod Mean
         -----------  -----------  -----------  -------------------------------  ------------
    Var   Corr   Pct   Corr   Pct   Corr   Pct     RE      CE    MedRE   MedCE    tstat   Pct
      1  0.404 0.000  0.401 0.000  0.398 0.000   0.162   0.162   0.162   0.155    4.568 0.000

                           Verification Period Results On Undifferenced Data

           Pearson      Robust      Spearman         RE and CE Statistics         Xprod Mean
         -----------  -----------  -----------  -------------------------------  ------------
    Var   Corr   Pct   Corr   Pct   Corr   Pct     RE      CE    MedRE   MedCE    tstat   Pct
      1  0.342 0.012  0.350 0.010  0.347 0.011   0.120   0.067   0.128   0.058    3.072 0.002

                          Verification Period Results On 1st-differenced Data

           Pearson      Robust      Spearman         RE and CE Statistics         Xprod Mean
         -----------  -----------  -----------  -------------------------------  ------------
    Var   Corr   Pct   Corr   Pct   Corr   Pct     RE      CE    MedRE   MedCE    tstat   Pct
      1  0.522 0.000  0.514 0.000  0.480 0.001   0.270   0.270   0.267   0.249    2.980 0.002
