LDEO ENSO Forecasts


Monthly forecasts of tropical Pacific SST and wind anomalies. Since the mid-1980s, forecasts of tropical Pacific SST anomalies have been made regularly at LDEO with a simple coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamical model (Cane et al., 1986; Zebiak and Cane, 1987). This model has played an important historic role in our understanding and prediction of ENSO. In the mid to late 1990s, we have improved the original LDEO model considerably by using a more balanced forecasting scheme (Chen et al., 1995), by applying more and better data for initialization (Chen et al., 1998, 1999), and by effectively reducing the large systematic model biases (Chen et al., 2000). The forecasts presented here are from the latest version of the LDEO model (LDEO5, Chen et al., 2004).