Decadal Changes in South Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures and the Relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Upper Ocean Heat Content Braddock K. Linsley1, Henry C. Wu2, Emilie P. Dassié1, Daniel P. Schrag3, 1Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY USA) 2MARUM-Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, 28359 Bremen, Germany 3 Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge MA, USA The paper can be found at: http://dx.doi.org/10.7916/D8XK8DP7 Two review articles about the paper can be found at: http://mashable.com/2015/04/09/rapid-global-warming/ http://www.scientificamerican.com/…/pacific-current-change…/ >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Reference: Linsley, B. K., H. C. Wu, E. P. Dassié, and D. P. Schrag (2015), Decadal changes in South Pacific sea surface temperatures and the relationship to the Pacific decadal oscillation and upper ocean heat content, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, doi:10.1002/2015GL063045. Abstract: Decadal changes in Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and upper ocean heat content (OHC) remain poorly understood. We present an annual average composite coral Sr/Ca-derived SST time series extending back to 1791 from Fiji, Tonga, and Rarotonga (FTR) in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) sensitive region of the southwest Pacific. Decadal SST maxima between 1805 and 1830 Common Era (C.E.) indicate unexplained elevated SSTs near the end of the Little Ice Age. The mean period of decadal SST variability in this region has a period near 25 years. Decades of warmer (cooler) FTR SST co-occur with PDO negative (positive) phases since at least ~1930 C.E. and positively correlate with South Pacific OHC (0–700 m). FTR SST is also inversely correlated with decadal changes in equatorial Pacific SST as measured by coral Sr/Ca. Collectively, these results support the fluctuating trade wind-shallow meridional overturning cell mechanism for decadal modulation of Pacific SSTs and OHC.

Decadal Changes in South Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures and the Relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Upper Ocean Heat Content

Braddock K. Linsley1, Henry C. Wu2, Emilie P. Dassié1, Daniel P. Schrag3,

1Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY USA)

2MARUM-Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, 28359 Bremen, Germany

3 Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge MA, USA

The paper can be found at:

http://dx.doi.org/10.7916/D8XK8DP7

Two review articles about the paper can be found at:

http://mashable.com/2015/04/09/rapid-global-warming/

http://www.scientificamerican.com/…/pacific-current-change…/

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Reference:

Linsley, B. K., H. C. Wu, E. P. Dassié, and D. P. Schrag (2015), Decadal changes in South Pacific sea surface temperatures and the relationship to the Pacific decadal oscillation and upper ocean heat content, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, doi:10.1002/2015GL063045.

Abstract:

Decadal changes in Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and upper ocean heat content (OHC) remain poorly understood. We present an annual average composite coral Sr/Ca-derived SST time series extending back to 1791 from Fiji, Tonga, and Rarotonga (FTR) in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

sensitive region of the southwest Pacific. Decadal SST maxima between 1805 and 1830 Common Era (C.E.) indicate unexplained elevated SSTs near the end of the Little Ice Age. The mean period of decadal SST variability in this region has a period near 25 years. Decades of warmer (cooler) FTR SST co-occur with PDO negative (positive) phases since at least ~1930 C.E. and positively correlate with South Pacific OHC (0–700 m). FTR SST is also inversely correlated with decadal changes in equatorial Pacific SST as measured by coral Sr/Ca. Collectively, these results support the fluctuating trade wind-shallow meridional overturning cell mechanism for decadal modulation of Pacific SSTs and OHC.

SUMMARY:

In addition to quantifying the timing of decadal changes in surface ocean temperatures in the Pacific, this paper has uncovered a linkage between decadal changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and upper ocean heat content (OHC)(0-700m) in the South Pacific.

The recurring decadal SST signal preserved in coral geochemistry suggests that the pause in global warming (the "hiatus) will end when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) next reverses phase. With a mean PDO recurrence interval of ~20 years between PDO phases and with the most recent PDO phase switch occurring in ~ 1999, this suggests the hiatus will end in ~2020 (plus-minus). A stretch, but a prediction from this work.

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