Environmental Data Analysis BC ENV 3017


Hydrological processes within a river basin

Drainage basin

Floods

Estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods

  • simplest approach: use worst event on record
  • envelope curves for maximum flood discharges
  • use the past record as key for the future? Statistical techniques
  • the maximum annual discharge rate of the river in a period of 100 years is called the 100y flood
  • the probability to exceed this value is in a given year is 1%, the exceedence probability is Pe = 0.01
  • an event with a frequency of 1 in 100y has a return period (recurrence interval) of 100 years
  • if data are normally distributed (or can be transformed so that they are normally distributed) the discharge rate equivalent to the 100y flood can be determined
  • there are differnt ways how to do this
    1. determine the rank of the maximum annual dischareg rates of the time series, then calculate the exceedence probability Pe: =rank/(number of measurements+1), and plot the dischareg rate or ln(discharge rate) vs Pe on Probability paper (Example ) and extrapolate the linear fit to the data to the recurrence interval of interest
    2. determine mean and standard deviation of the maximum discharge rates and determine the discharge rate that is exceeded in 1% of the cases using the normal disrtibution
  • normal distribution works often well with precipitation data, log normal for discharge
  • the problem of this approach: not deterministic, based usually on non-adequate data, climate and terrestrial environment is variable
  • Resources