Environmental Data Analysis BC ENV 3017


Hydrological processes within a river basin

Drainage basin

Floods

Estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods

  • earliest approaches: estimate of maximum sized events, then frequency as important as magnitude: statistical approaches), today: 'worst scenario'
  • simplest approach: use worst event on record
  • envelope curves (enclose maximum values)
  • relationship between depth and duration of rainfall events
  • Envelope curves for maximum flood discharges
  • Past record key for the future? Statistical techniques
  • an event with a frequency of 1 in 100y has a return period (recurrence interval) of 100 years
  • discharge versus percentage of time discharge is exceed
  • frequency, F, for annual floods: F=m/(n+1), m: Rank order of event, n: number of years
  • annual maximum series, used to predict the 100 year flood
  • steps: determine rank and frequency and plot discharge against probability using some statistical distribution
  • normal distribution works often well with precipitation data, log normal for discharge

  • problems: not deterministic, based usually on non-adequate data, climate and terrestrial environment is variable

    Resources