ResearcherID (F-9952-2011)          Publications Before 2011          Google Scholar               

Publications can be accessed via the OCP Division of LDEO,

the Columbia University Academic Commons, or through the links below.

Symbols indicate *student or postdoctoral author

Books, Chapters, Reports and General Audience Pieces

Smerdon, J.E. (2017), What was Earth's climate like before we were measuring it?, Significance, 14: 24-29. doi:10.1111/j.1740-9713.2017.00999.x

Smerdon, J.E., J. Luterbacher, S.J. Phipps (2016), Hydro2k: Integrating proxy data and models for insights into past and future hydroclimate, PAGES Magazine, 24(1), 45.

Smerdon, J.E., What historic megadroughts in the western US tell us about our climate future, The Conversation, February 16th, 2015

Masson-Delmotte, V., et al., (2013), Information from paleoclimate archives, In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, [Stocker, T.F. et al. (eds.)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Monteleoni, C., G.A. Schmidt, F. Alexander, A. Niculescu-Mizil, K. Steinhaeuser, M. Tippett, A. Banerjee, M.B. Blumenthal, A.R. Ganguly, J.E. Smerdon, and M. Tedesco, Climate Informatics, In Computational Intelligent Data Analysis for Sustainable Development; Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery Series. Yu, T., Chawla, N., and Simoff, S. (Eds.), CRC Press, 2013.

Smerdon, J.E., Student Companion to Climate Change: The Science of Global Warming and Our Energy Future by E.A. Mathez, Columbia University Press, New York, NY, 2009, pp. 277-309.

Smerdon, J.E., Letter to the New York Times, April 9, 2009

*Rook, A., *A. Powell and J.E. Smerdon, Initial Sustainability Report on Barnard College, 2007.

Manuscripts in Review

Cook, B.I., A.P. Williams, J.S. Mankin, R. Seager, J.E. Smerdon and D. Singh, Revisiting the leading drivers of Pacific coastal drought variability in the Contiguous United States, Journal of Climate, in review.

Ault, T.R., S. St. George, J.E. Smerdon, S. Coats, J.S. Mankin, C.M. Carrillo, B.I. Cook, and S. Stevenson, A robust null hypothesis for the potential causes of megadrought in western North America, Journal of Climate, in review.

Hydro2k Consortium: Smerdon, J.E., J. Luterbacher, S. Phipps, K.J. Anchukaitis, T.R. Ault, S. Coats, K.M. Cobb, B.I. Cook, C. Colose, T. Felis, A. Gallant, J.H. Jungclaus, B. Konecky, A. LeGrande, S. Lewis, A.S. Lopatka, W. Man, J.S. Mankin, J.T. Maxwell, B.L. Otto-Bliesner, J.W. Partin, D. Singh, N.J. Steiger, S. Stevenson, J.E. Tierney, D. Zanchettin, H. Zhang, A. Atwood, L. Andreu-Hayles, S.H. Baek, B. Buckley, E.R. Cook, R. D'Arrigo, S.G. Dee, M. Griffiths, C. Kulkarni, Y. Kushnir, F. Lehner, C. Leland, H.W. Linderholm, A. Okazaki, J. Palmer, E. Piovano, C.C. Raible, M.P. Rao, J. Scheff, G.A. Schmidt, R. Seager, M. Widmann, A.P. Williams, E. Xoplaki, Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era, Climate of the Past Discussions, in review.

Hartl-Meier, C.T.M., U. Büntgen, J. E. Smerdon, E. Zorita, P. J. Krusic, F. C. Ljungqvist, *L. Schneider, and J. Esper, Temperature covariance in tree-ring reconstructions and climate model simulations over the past millennium, Geophysical Research Letters, in review.

*Schneider, L.,  J.E. Smerdon, F. Pretis, C. Hartl-Meier, and J. Esper, An independent record of large volcanic events over the past millennium from reconstructed summer temperatures, Environmental Research Letters, in review.

Jungclaus, J.H., E. Bard, M. Baroni, P. Braconnot, J. Cao, L.P. Chini, T. Egorova, M. Evans, J.F. González-Rouco, H. Goosse, G.C. Hurtt, F. Joos, J.O. Kaplan, M. Khodri, K. Klein Goldewijk, N. Krivova, A.N. LeGrande, S.J. Lorenz, J. Luterbacher, W. Man, M. Meinshausen, A. Moberg, C. Nehrbass-Ahles, B.I. Otto-Bliesner, S.J. Phipps, J. Pongratz, E. Rozanov, G.A. Schmidt, H. Schmidt, W. Schmutz, A. Schurer, A.I. Shapiro, M. Sigl, J.E Smerdon, S.K. Solanki, C. Timmreck, M. Toohey, I.G. Usoskin, S. Wagner, C.-J. Wu, K.L. Yeo, D. Zanchettin, Q. Zhang, and E. Zorita, The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 - Part 3: the Last Millenium, Scientific Objective and Experimental Design for the PMIP4 past1000 simulations, Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-278, in review.

*Baek, S.H., J.E. Smerdon, S. Coats, A.P. Williams, B.I. Cook, E.R. Cook, R. Seager, Precipitation, temperature, and teleconnection signals across the combined North American, Monsoon Asia, and Old World Drought Atlases, Journal of Climate, in review.

*Fernández-Donado, L., J. F. González-Rouco, E. García-Bustamante, J.E. Smerdon, S.J. Phipps, J. Luterbacher, and C.C. Raible, Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions of the Common Era: Ensemble uncertainties and their influence on model-data comparisons, Geophysical Research Letters, in revision.


70. Mankin, J.S., D. Viviroli, M.M. Mekonnen, A.Y. Hoekstra, R.M. Horton, J.E. Smerdon, and N.S. Diffenbaugh, Influence of internal variability on population exposure to hydroclimatic changes, Environmental Research Letters, in press.


69. Beltrami, H., G.S. Matharoo, J.E. Smerdon, L. Illanes, and L. Tarasov (2016), Impacts of the Last Glacial Cycle on Ground Surface Temperature Reconstructions over the Last Millennium, Geophysical Research Letters, 43, doi:10.1002/2016gl071317.

68. Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, B.I. Cook, R. Seager, E.R. Cook, and K.J. Anchukaitis (2016), Internal ocean-atmosphere variability drives megadroughts in Western North America, Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 9886-9894, doi:10.1002/2016GL070105. [Supplemental Material]

67. Ault, T.R., J.S. Mankin, B.I. Cook and J.E. Smerdon (2016), Relative impacts of mitigation, temperature, and precipitation on 21st-Century megadrought risk in the American Southwest, Science Advances, 2(10), e1600873, doi:10.1126/sciadv.1600873. [EI Press Release] [Cornell Press Release] [Mashable] [Popular Mechanics] [Time] [USA Today] [The Guardian] [Daily Mail] [ABC News] [Esquire]

66. Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, K.B. Karnauskas, and R. Seager (2016), The improbable but unexceptional occurrence of megadrought clustering in the American West during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, Environmental Research Letters, 11(7), doi:

65. Smerdon, J.E., and H.N. Pollack (2016), Reconstructing Earth's surface temperature over the past 2000 years: the science behind the headlines, WIREs Climate Change, doi: 10.1002/wcc.418. Note: The production editors changed Figure 1 during the copy editing and the plots aren't aligned properly.  Download a correctly aligned figure (as it was submitted) here.

64. *Cuesta-Valero, F.J., *A. García-García, H. Beltrami, and J.E. Smerdon (2016), First assessment of continental energy storage in CMIP5 simulations, Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 5326-5335, doi:10.1002/2016GL068496. [St. FX Summary]

63.  Li, B., X. Zhang and J.E. Smerdon (2016), Comparison between Spatio-Temporal Random Processes and Application to Climate Model Data, Environmentrics, doi:10.1002/env.2395.

62. *García-García, A., *F.J. Cuesta-Valero, H. Beltrami, and J.E. Smerdon (2016), Simulation of air and ground temperatures in PMIP3/CMIP5 last millennium simulations: implications for climate reconstructions from borehole temperature profiles, Environmental Research Letters, 11, 044022, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/044022. [St. FX Summary]

61. Pretis, F., *L. Schneider, J.E. Smerdon and D. Hendry (2016), Detecting Volcanic Eruptions in Temperature Reconstructions by Designed Break-Indicator Saturation, Journal of Economic Surveys, 30: 403-429, doi: 10.1111/joes.12148. [EI Press Release]

60. Cook, B.I., E.R. Cook, J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager, A.P. Williams. S. Coats, D.W. Stahle, and J. Villanueva Díaz (2016), North American Megadroughts in the Common Era: Reconstructions and Simulations, WIREs Climate Change, doi:10.1002/wcc.394.

59. Euro-Med2k Consortium: Luterbacher, J., J.P. Werner, J.E. Smerdon, L. Fernández-Donado, J. Gonzalez-Rouco, D. Barriopedro, F. Ljungqvist, U. Büntgen, E. Zorita, S. Wagner, J. Esper, D. McCarroll, A. Toreti, D. Frank, J. Jungclaus, M. Barriendos, C. Bertolin, O. Bothe, R. Brázdil, C. Dario, P. Dobrovolný, M. Gagen, E. García-Bustamante, Q. Ge, J. Gómez-Navarro, J. Guiot, Z. Hao, G. Hegerl, K. Holmgren, V. Klimenko, J. Martín-Chivelet, C. Pfister, N. Roberts, A. Schindler, A. Schurer, O. Solomina, L. von Gunten, E. Wahl, H. Wanner, O. Wetter, E. Xoplaki, N. Yuan, D. Zanchettin, H. Zhang, C. Zerefos (2016), European summer temperatures since Roman times, Environmental Research Letters, 11, 024001, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/2/024001. [BBC] [Newsweek] [The Guardian] [ThinkProgress] [The Daily Mail] [Pacific Standard] [New Scientist] [2016 ERL Highlighted Research Article]

58. Smerdon, J.E., *S. Coats, and T.R. Ault (2016), Model-Dependent Spatial Skill in Pseudoproxy Experiments Testing Climate Field Reconstruction Methods for the Common Era, Climate Dynamics, 46(5), 1921-1942, DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2684-0. [Supplementary Website]


57. PAGES2k-PMIP3 group: Böthe, O., M. Evans, L. Fernández-Donado, E. García-Bustamante, J. Gergis, J. F. González-Rouco, H. Goosse, G. Hegerl, A. Hind, J. Jungclaus, D. Kaufman, F. Lehner, N. McKay, A. Moberg, C.C. Raible, A. Schurer, F. Shi, J.E. Smerdon, L. von Gunten, S. Wagner, E. Warren, M. Widmann, P. Yiou, E. Zorita (2015), Continental-scale temperature variability in PMIP3 simulations and PAGES 2k regional temperature reconstructions over the past millennium, Climate of the Past, 11, 1673-1699, doi:10.5194/cp-11-1673-2015.

56. Williams, A.P., R. Seager, J.T. Abatzoglou, B.I. Cook, J.E. Smerdon, E.R. Cook (2015), Contribution of anthropogenic warming to the 2012–2014 California drought, Geophysical Research Letters, 42, 6819-6828, doi:10.1002/2015GL064924. [Supplementary Website] [Auxiliary Material] [LDEO Press Release] [EOS Research Spotlight] [New York Times] [Washington Post] [LA Times] [Think Progress] [Al Jazeera America] [International Business Times] [Newsweek] [Climate Central] [Salon] [Guardian] [The Conversation] [Democracy Now] [Scientific American] [Seattle Times] [USA Today] [Miami Herald] [Reuters]

55. *Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager, D. Griffin, and B.I. Cook (2015), Winter-to-Summer Precipitation Phasing in Southwestern North America: A Multi-century perspective from Paleoclimatic Model-Data Comparisons, Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 120, 8052-8064, doi:10.1002/2015JD023085.

54. Esper, J., *L. Schneider, J.E. Smerdon, B. Schöne, and U. Büntgen (2015), Signals and memory in tree-ring width and density data, Dendrochronologia, 35, 62-70.

53. *Schneider, L., J.E. Smerdon, U. Büntgen, R.J.S. Wilson, V.S. Myglan, A.V. Kirdyanov, and J. Esper (2015), Revising midlatitude summer temperatures back to AD 600 based on a wood density network, Geophysical Research Letters, 42, 4556-4562, doi:10.1002/2015GL063956. [Auxiliary Material]

52. Beltrami, H., G. Matharoo and J.E. Smerdon (2015), Impact of borehole depths on reconstructed estimates of ground surface temperature histories and energy storage, Journal of Geophysical Research - Earth Surface, 120, 763-778, doi: 10.1002/2014JF003382.

51. Cook, B.I., T.R. Ault, and J.E. Smerdon (2015), Unprecedented 21st-Century Drought Risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains, Science Advances, 1, e1400082. [EI Press Release] [NASA Press Release] [Science] [Nature News] [US News & World Report] [CBS News] [LA Times] [NY Times] [Irish Times] [International Business Times] [Japan Times] [Slate] [Salon] [PBS] [Scientific American] [The Guardian] [Al Jazeera] [National Geographic] [The Conversation] [NPR's Science Friday] [BBC] [Climate Central] [Raw Science] [LA Times Op-ED]

50. Smerdon, J.E., B.I. Cook, E.R. Cook, and R. Seager (2015), Bridging Past and Future Climate Across Paleoclimatic Reconstructions, Observations, and Models: A Hydroclimate Case Study, Journal of Climate, 28(8), 3212-3231.

49. Beltrami, H., G. Matharoo and J.E. Smerdon (2015), Ground surface temperature and continental heat gain in a warming climate: Uncertainties from underground, Environmental Research Letters, 10, 014009, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014009.

48. *Coats, S., B.I. Cook, J.E. Smerdon, and R. Seager (2015), North American Pan-Continental Droughts in Model Simulations of the Last Millennium, Journal of Climate, 28, 2025-2043.

47. *Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, B.I. Cook and R. Seager (2015), Are Simulated Megadroughts in the North American Southwest Forced?, Journal of Climate, 28, 124-142. doi:


46. Evans, M.N., J.E. Smerdon, A. Kaplan, S.E. Tolwinski-Ward, and J.F. González-Rouco (2014), Climate field reconstruction uncertainty arising from multivariate and nonlinear properties of predictors, Geophysical Research Letters, 41, doi:10.1002/2014GL062063.

45. Cook, B.I., R. Seager, and J.E. Smerdon (2014), The Worst North American Drought Year of the Last Millennium: 1934, Geophysical Research Letters, 41, doi:10.1002/2014GL061661.

44. PAGES 2k Consortium (Primary Authors: K. Anchukaitis, U. Büntgen, J. Emile-Geay, M. N. Evans, H. Goosse, D. Kaufman, J. Luterbacher, J. Smerdon, M. Tingley, L. von Gunten) (2014), A Community-Driven Framework for Climate Reconstructions, Eos Trans. AGU, 95(40), 361.

43. Beltrami, H., G.S. Matharoo, L. Tarasov, V. Rath and J.E. Smerdon (2014), Numerical Studies on the Impact of the Last Glacial Cycle on recent borehole temperature profiles: impications for terrestrial energy balance, Climate of the Past, 10, 1693-1706, doi:10.5194/cp-10-1693-2014.

42. Wahl, E.R., H.F. Diaz, J.E. Smerdon and C. M. Ammann (2014), Late Winter Temperature Response to Large Tropical Volcanic Eruptions in Temperate Western North America: Relationship to ENSO Phases, Global and Planetary Change, 122, 238-250, doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.08.005.

41. *Ballard, T., R. Seager, J.E. Smerdon, B.I. Cook, A.J. Ray, B. Rajagopalan, Y. Kushnir, J. Nakamura, N. Henderson (2014), Hydroclimate Variability and Change in the Prairie Pothole Region, the “Duck Factory” of North America, Earth Interactions, 18, 1-28, doi:

40. Cook, B.I., J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager, and *S. Coats (2014), Global warming and 21st century drying, Climate Dynamics, 43:2607-2627, DOI 10.1007/s00382-014-2075-y. [Supplementary Website] [EI Press Release] [CBS News] [Weather Underground] [Huffington Post] [Think Progress]

39. Cook, B.I., J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager and E.R. Cook (2014), Pan-continental droughts in North America over the last millennium, Journal of Climate, 27, 383-397, doi: [Nature News & Views]

38. *Wang, J., J. Emile-Geay, D. Guillot, J.E. Smerdon, and  B. Rajaratnam (2014), Evaluating climate field reconstruction techniques using improved emulations of real-world conditions, Climate of the Past, 10, 1-19, doi:10.5194/cp-10-1-2014.


37. *Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, B.I. Cook and R. Seager (2013), Stationarity of the Tropical Pacific Teleconnection to North America in CMIP5/PMIP3 Model Simulations, Geophysical Research Letters, 40, doil:10.1002/grl.50938.

36. *Coats, S., J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager, B.I. Cook and J.F. González-Rouco (2013), Megadroughts in Southwest North America in Millennium-Length ECHO-G Simulations and their Comparison to Proxy Drought Reconstructions, Journal of Climate, 26, 7635-7649, doi: [Nature News] [Scientific American Blog]

35. PAGES 2k Consortium: Ahmed, M., K.J. Anchukaitis, A. Asrat, H.P. Borgaonkar, M. Braida, B.M. Buckley, U. Buntgen, B.M. Chase, D.A. Christie, E.R. Cook, M.A.J. Curran, H.F. Diaz, J.Esper, Z-X. Fan, N.P. Gaire, Q. Ge, J. Gergis, J.F. Gonzalez-Rouco, H. Goosse, S.W. Grab, N. Graham, R. Graham, M. Grosjean, S.T. Hanhijarvi, D.S. Kaufman, T. Kiefer, K. Kimura, A.A. Korhola, P.J. Krusic, A. Lara, A-M. Lezine, F.C. Ljungqvist, A.M. Lorrey, J. Luterbacher, V. Masson-Delmotte, D. McCarroll, J.R. McConnell, N.P. McKay, M.S. Morales, A.D. Moy, R. Mulvaney, I.A. Mundo, T. Nakatsuka, D.J. Nash, R. Neukom, S.E. Nicholson, H. Oerter, J.G. Palmer, S.J. Phipps, M.R. Prieto, A. Rivera, M. Sano, M. Severi, T.M. Shanahan, X. Shao, F. Shi, M. Sigl, J.E. Smerdon, O.N. Solomina, E.J. Steig, B. Stenni, M. Thamban, V. Trouet, C.S.M. Turney, M. Umer, T. van Ommen, D. Verschuren, A.E. Viau, R. Villalba, B.M. Vinther, L. von Gunten, S. Wagner, E.R. Wahl, H. Wanner, J.P. Werner, J.W.C. White, K. Yasue, E. Zorita (2013), Continental-scale temperature variability over the last two millennia, Nature Geoscience, 6, 339-346, doi:10.1038/ngeo1797. [PAGES FAQ] [EI Press Release] [NYTs Dot Earth Blog] [NOAA News] [US News]

34. Smerdon, J.E., A. Kaplan and *D.E. Amrhein (2013), Reply to comment by Rutherford et al. on "Erroneous Model Field Representations in Multiple Pseudoproxy Studies: Corrections and Implications", Journal of Climate, 26, 3485–3486. [Supplementary Website] [Rutherford et al Comment]

33. Tierney, J.E., J.E. Smerdon, K.J. Anchukaitis, and R. Seager (2013), Multidecadal variability in East African hydroclimate controlled by the Indian Ocean, Nature, 493, 389-392. [WHOI Press Release]

32. Werner, J.P., J. Luterbacher, and J.E. Smerdon (2013), A Pseudoproxy Evaluation of Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling and Canonical Correlation Analysis for Climate Field Reconstructions over Europe, Journal of Climate, 26(3), 851-867.


31. Karnauskas, K.B., J.E. Smerdon, R. Seager, and J.F. González-Rouco (2012), A Pacific centennial oscillation predicted by coupled GCMs, Journal of Climate, 25, 5943-5961.

30. Li, B., and J.E. Smerdon (2012), Defining spatial assessment metrics for evaluation of paleoclimatic field reconstructions of the Common Era, Environmetrics, 23(5), 394-406.

29. Wahl, E.R., and J.E. Smerdon (2012), Comparative performance of paleoclimatic field and index reconstructions derived from climate proxies and noise-only predictors, Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L06703, doi:10.1029/2012GL051086. [Auxiliary Material] [Supplementary Website] Please see the small but important correction published for this manuscript.

28. Smerdon, J.E. (2012), Climate models as a test bed for climate reconstruction methods: pseudoproxy experiments, WIREs Climate Change, 3:63-77, doi:10.1002/wcc.149. [Research Blog Post]


27. Beltrami, H., J.E. Smerdon, G. Matharoo, and *N. Nickerson (2011), Impact of maximum borehole depths on inverted temperature histories in borehole paleoclimatology, Climate of the Past, 7, 745-756, doi:10.5194/cp-7-745-2011.

26. Smerdon, J.E., A. Kaplan, E. Zorita, J.F. González-Rouco, and M.N. Evans (2011), Spatial performance of four climate field reconstruction methods targeting the Common Era, Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L11705, doi:10.1029/2011GL047372. [Auxiliary Materials] [Supplementary Website] [Research Blog Post]

25. D’Arrigo, R., R. Seager, J.E. Smerdon, A.N. LeGrande, and E.R. Cook (2011), The anomalous winter of 1783-1784: Was the Laki eruption or an analog of the 2009-2010 winter to blame?, Geophysical Research Letters, 38, L05706, doi:10.1029/2011GL046696. [Auxiliary Materials] [Research Blog Post] [GRL Editor’s Highlight] [EI Blog Post] [Our Amazing Planet]

24. Smerdon, J.E. (2011), Discussion of: A Statistical Analysis of Multiple Temperature Proxies: Are Reconstructions of Surface Temperatures Over the Last 1000 Years Reliable?, Annals of Applied Statistics, 5(1), 76-79. [Complete AAoS Issue] [Supplementary Materials] [Research Blog Post]

Publications Before 2011